November 24, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Spokane Eagle | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Exemplar | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Laddie Boy | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bandar | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Coal Truth | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Potomac | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Road Game | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Attuck | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mica Bay | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Embellisher | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All Out | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Napoleon’s Empire | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jacks Fire Balls | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Time Player | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bold Adventure | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Fars Glitter | 30.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | J D’s Girl | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Nocturnal Mission | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Evil Ways | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hoptown Honey | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Gianna’s Gift | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ginormous | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pretty Assets | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Bold Esther | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Big Dollar Bill | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Remembering Rita | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Guest Suite | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Thirstforlife | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Colonelsdarktemper | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | In the Mood | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Unbridled Outlaw | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dark Arden | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Oashaar | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Potential Danger | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Calandave | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | British Humor | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | C Js Billy Byu | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tee Tee | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sumner | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Swamp Ruler | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Red Blue and True | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hugh B. | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bajan Cash | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Mono | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pete Marwick | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Approvethismessage | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Go Away | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Grand Meister | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Lionite | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 15A | 9 | Determinant | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fort Peck | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Pickford | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kearny County | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run Rite | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Perfect Beam | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Marv’s Magic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Lo’s Journey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | King of Candy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Surge Pricing | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Armchair Jockey | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Most Mischief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Awesome Figure | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miz Shelton | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | A. P. Princess | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arch Avenue | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | First Lady Maggie | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | I’llmakeyousmile | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Broadway Cat | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lifefullofreinbows | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Destiny’s Darling | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Giro Kate | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | War Ballad | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Drinkatthecreek | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Dinar | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Copper King | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ekati’s Verve | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Majestic West | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Island Boy | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hidden Talent | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amani Warrior | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Omega Storm (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lookin High | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 7 | Noble Thought | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tigers Rule | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Unmatchable | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 17 | 10 | Frolic More | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kaziranga | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Musical America | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 16 | 9 | High Regard | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Harvey Wallbanger | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 15 | 8 | Eskenforit | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Tobacco Road | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Paddy O’Dini | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Hierarchy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Spooky Channel | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Honovi | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Scholar Athlete | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Projected (GB) | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Tolstoy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Victory Element | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sultry Samurai | 5.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dry Lake | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Town Champ | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mr Abernathy | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Reelfoot | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Atmos | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Korczak | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Money On My Mind | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Afleet Roger | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Bryce | 30.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brand New Key | 30.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Island | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Superado | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mjolnir | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mr Opportunity | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.