November 21, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Wrath | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Kaliningrad | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wallet | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | World Tax War (IRE) | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Meaningful | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Level Seventeen | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Afleetinfront | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Stand and Deliver | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1A | 9 | A King’s Ransom | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Campaign Spy | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Scooter’s Boy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Stolen Beauty | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sweet Carli | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Zebecca | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Indomitable Spirit | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Candy Cane Cat | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sequaya | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Classy Justice | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Lady to the Max | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sapphire Jubilee | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Colorincolonel | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cook Memories | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spearette | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kimberley Dream | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Patti Patti Patti | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Positive Vibes | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Princesa Blanca | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Macabre | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trish the Dish | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Daddymademedoit | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Elle M’a Souri (FR) | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hermajestycommands | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Platinum Paynter | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Moving Moon (IRE) | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | More Moet Pleez | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Magic Finnish | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Delaney Ferry | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Nessum Dorma | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Notorious Gal | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Canadian Sunset | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Girlfriend Rocket | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tuxedo Lemon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Italian Justice | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Larry’s Baby | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Party Lights | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fight On Penn | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Our Lizzy Lou | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Positive Force | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Yellow Bird | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lady of Lahti | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Golden Lily | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Secret Revolution | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Saint Gloria | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arbanne | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Always Secret | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | West Coast Temple | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Pick Up the Fone | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Little Red Frog | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kay Bee Gee | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Symphony Hall | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Contendress | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lil Miss Hot Mess | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Competitive Queen | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Such Great Heights | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Declined | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Uncapped | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Infinite | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Thirsty Betrayal | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | American Mandate | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Just Might | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Get Some Mo | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Boom Five Thousand | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Chasin Charlie | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tough Love | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Grit and Curiosity | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bizzee Channel | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Howard Roark | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | El Capa Rojo | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Luna’s in Charge | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bird Dog | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Oro de Tejano | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eastside Boy | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cantrell Hill | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Cornstarch | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Its Yes | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Eskendereyas Dream | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Comes N Threes | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brilliant Decision | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 8 | Irish Mischief | 1.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Summer Delivery | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Annathela | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Into Trouble | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | V J’s Bet | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Varlebena | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hint of Mint | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dutch Treat | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | I’mluckysgirl | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Femme Royale | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Shackleford’s Joy | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 6 | Glass Eater | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Street Ready | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Crypto Cash | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Hieronymus | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Perfect Star | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Diamonds Enjoy | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Natural Power (IRE) | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Prefect | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tecumseh’s War | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1A | 17 | Sprawl | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Epitomize | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Shippingport | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Memorable | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Alohlouya | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sharecropper | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | City Front | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.