November 20, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Indian Cross | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Raison Karter | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Corredor | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Baquero Flies | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Axis | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Overlay | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trueno | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Man He Can | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Anywhere Road | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sir Nuisance | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Highland Lass | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Unfading Beauty | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady Leah | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hidenseek Sally | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Entrusted | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flirty | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sweet N Wicked | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Saucy At Midnight | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Promised | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Hurry Back | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Who’syourfavorite | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tactical Quality | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | War Veteran | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Rickhouse | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Corbin | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Run This Town | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Zartastic | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Pioneer Dancer | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glorious Weekend | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Martial Eagle | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Fast Fairy | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Smart Arch | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Popcorn for Eddie | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Macho Madness | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Moose Got Even | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Cauldron | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Oh Bene | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Fayetteville | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Level Seventeen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Slick as a Pin | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | World Tax War (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Wallet | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kaliningrad | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | C Islandsurprise | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Yes I’m Evil | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sugar Cube | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Traumarama | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Molly’s Game | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Morty | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Katie the Cutie | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bella Kristina | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Fun Sucker | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Lady Rubi | 30.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Atruevision | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Stage Five Creeper | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Fra Mauro | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candy Store | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Moonster | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wild About Candy | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Messiah | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lea Ridge | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | New Year’s Luck | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Direct Approach | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Goose Drank Wine | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Believeinholidays | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Pull My Chain | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Maya Solomea | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Ask Bailey | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Morning Gold | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pass the Plate | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Across | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Spun Eazy | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fifthatnarraganset | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | How Ironic | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wexx | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lemon Scat | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ginger Kitty | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Witez | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Miss Firecracker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Violane | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Skygaze | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mizzen Beau | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | She Can’t Sing | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dizzy Sight | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Father G | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fullness of Time | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carte Blanche | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gun It | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | And Seek | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sharp Prospect | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Shakes Creek | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Curate | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Done Deal | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Telekinesis | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Moonoverseba | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Kowboy Karma | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mojo Man | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alkhaatam | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Cowboy Creed | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Proschema | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Home Base | 10.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Rubus | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Best of Greeley | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hypnotist | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Freedom’s Flight | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Red Sorrell | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ramsey Solution | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Blankenbaker | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Alexander Hamilton | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Made My Day (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Dermot | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Right On Kid | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Illidan | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Third Edition | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Attorney Tim | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | King of Fortune | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lookin High | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ekati’s Verve | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Jacks Fire Balls | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.