November 16, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Ginny B | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shackleford County | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Adheretome | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Naughty Factor | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Thea Bee | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Centerfold Angel | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hope So | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Nikki Beach | 1.60 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Proud Emma | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Brunette Princess | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drinking Dixie | 8.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Profound Legacy | 6.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shacklette | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Rocko’s Wheel | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Conquest Big E | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Matrooh | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hardly a Secret | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Conqueror | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Chicory Blue | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Kearny County | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Kona Kai | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maga Suite | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Nodoubtabouther | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Claudette Nonstop | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ready to Play | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dynamite Gift | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shi O’Shi | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | U S S Lexington | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Violenza | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Tapalong | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Music in the Air | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Crafty Lady | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Let Them Eat Cake | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Flatoya | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Palace Duchess | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Wasiyah | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Flugel Binder | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mucho | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | Get Hammered | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Oncewewerebrothers | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Where Paradise Lay | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Better Charge It | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hide the Demon | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Twelfth Labour | 4.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5A | 5 | Big Drink of Water | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Enjay’s Brass | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Quick Quick Quick | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Evil Ways | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Dreaming Diamonds | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Love My Honey | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Its Cold in Dehere | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Miss Ximena | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’llmakeyousmile | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Pretty Assets | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Temple City Terror | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sugar Love | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chikara | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Rodhwaan | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Rosalie (IRE) | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Keepthe Main Thing | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Sister Hanan | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Whos to Blame | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Allonge | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Piece by Peace | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sea Serenade (GB) | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Twelve Monarchs | 50.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Excuses Begone | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cosmic Link | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Ameerah B | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | More Moet Pleez | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | As the Snow Flies | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Girlfriend Rocket | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mr. Monomoy | 1.80 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Cavalry Charge | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Fulfill | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Prodigious Bay | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Romario | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Be Fierce | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Gambler | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | In Sky We Trust | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Willfred | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tiz Rye Time | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Urbanite | 6.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Full Authority | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Getridofwhatailesu | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cardamon | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hallawallah | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Introspection | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tiz Ella | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jo Marie | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gorgeous in Rags | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Data Damsel | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Templuna | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – River City H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mr. Misunderstood | 2.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Admission Office | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Space Mountain | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Emmaus (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Get Western | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cullum Road | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | My Bariley | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Bemma’s Boy | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Lascaux | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Bibiana | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saxony | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Swiss Skydiver | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wellington Wonder | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Super Legs | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mi Bella | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Kertara | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Moonlight Dancing | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Zidikai | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Spoken With a Kiss | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dixieland Traffic | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.