November 16, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Haul Anchor | 0.60 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Ballantine | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Too Fast to Pass | 15.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | So Sublime | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Real Dan | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Theyallcomehome | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Dawn’s Early Light | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hellbender | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dante’s Fire | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dreamofasamurai | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Aintitfunkynow | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Too Early | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Wild Banker | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Mitzrayim | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Neuro | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bijemini Slew | 30.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Galway Empire | 12.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cray Cray | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Troubleshooter | 6.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Themsfightinwords | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9A | 9 | Voliero | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 16A | 16 | Brunate | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Catch a Cab | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Local Hero | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bondurant | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Chocolate Ride | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Machtree | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Daddy D T | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Curlin Road | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Brucarita | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mills | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mobridge | 10.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Total Tap | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Atta Kid | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hills Pond | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Armament | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hemlock | 2.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trash Talker | 5.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Obsessed | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mr Phil | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kingmeister | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bayern’s Mirage | 30.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Ikeisgreat | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Robber Bob | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Nutzforboltz | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Saltking | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Ten Eyck | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Quiet Out East | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Steelersfanforlife | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Irish Valor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Southern Brigade | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Curlin’s Legacy | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Risky Sour | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Run for Boston | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Knight Frost | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Tiberius Mercurius | 2.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Monkeyseemonkeydo | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Starting Point | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Donegal Aces | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Knockout Punch | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Brahe | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | French Reef (IRE) | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blameless | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dillon Rocks | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rakeez | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | North Dakota | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tough Times | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cash Again | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bad Dude | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Last Million | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Collegeville Girl | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nasty Affair | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mary’s Girl | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Quietude | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Overtime Olivia | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fight On Lucy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wailin Josie | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Carlisle Belle | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Shesasuperfreak | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Key Cents S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Sassy Sarah | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Time Limit | 2.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Playtone | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Shadolamo | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Single Verse | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Q | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | All Over the Map | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 15 | Tide Storm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Altea (FR) | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bareeqa | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Connectivity | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Civil Union | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Music of Life | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wish Upon | 4.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kelleycanrun | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Periodical | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Blonde Moment | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Betty F (GB) | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mean Mary | 2.50 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Distorted News | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Kingdom’s Queen | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Southern Christmas | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cottonwood Falls | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Chiclet’s Dream | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Teletype | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ellanation | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Appreciate | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Heartstrings | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | She’s Dreamin | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cape Cod Diva | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Matzo Bella | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Peggy Sue | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Shrink | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Abraxan | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Itsakeyper | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Incredible Miss | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tradeable | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Bourbon High | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.