November 15, 2019 Aqueduct Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Vintage Hollywood | 1.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Booby Trap | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dooley | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beach Access | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Snake Oil Charlie | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Inclunation | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Blue Skies Forever | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 6 | Arabella Bella | 6.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Reversethedecision | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | War Canoe | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Kreesie | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Passing Out | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sorrentina Lemon | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Matty’s Magnum | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | No Hayne No Gayne | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Held Accountable | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8A | 8 | Out of Orbit | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Mrs. S | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Water White | 1.40 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Persisto | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kissing Frogs | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Indawin | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sinister Siren | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Movie Score | 1.60 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dirty Bird | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Floss Dancer | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lola’s Kisses | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tayler’s the Boss | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whyisshesoolucky | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | G. T. Sonia | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sister Emily | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Its a Ford | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rousey | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | Paradiso | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lookbothways | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amazing Zero | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Delta Gamma | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Irish Banker | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Handle With Care | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Barbara P | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 9 | Damselfly | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gray Witch | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Flattering Eyes | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 15 | 14 | Simmering Miss | 30.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Firestormy | 50.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Miss Jill | 30.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Emerald Ice | 50.00 | 11.9 | 23-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Beyond Brown | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moana’s Tale | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Courageous Girl | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Adorable Maya | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Dancing Kiki | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | I’m Fine | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Pandamom | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honey Bourbon | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mebs Web | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Time Shift | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Giacosa | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dash Dot Dot | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Tornado Crossing | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bellamy Bigs | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Malibu Too | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Sophie Fatale | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sierra Aleone | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Alabama Bound | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Keep Your Distance | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | La Piu Bella | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Hoponthebusgus | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Annie Rocks | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Proud O’Paddy | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | China Rider | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | A Dixie Twister | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Cover Photo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Karen’s Gem | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Awesome Quick | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Pugilist | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Woundwithhereyes | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Radiantrithym | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Concerned | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kept True | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Break Curfew | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Alisio | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Slimey | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Cadeau de Paix | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Aunt Babe | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Can U Handle This | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Krewe Chief | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hieroglyphics | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wicked Freud | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | River Deep | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Siding Spring | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Ramsey | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mills | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Seanow | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Catch a Cab | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6A | 6 | Zapperini | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Jen’s Battle | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | La Negrita | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Keypit | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Surprise Arrival | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Bean Indiscreet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Superbloodwolfmoon | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Gold Medalist | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Pippi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sweet Leaf | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Kefaliani | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Menzamenz | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Candy Girl | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Super Twenty Seven | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Impazible Girl | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Banque de Margaux | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Tourbillon Rose | 30.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.