November 14, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Forerun | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Incensed | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Kid Perfect | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Icatiro | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | You’re Killin Me | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pete Marwick | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Chief Know It All | 1.60 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Laddie Boy | 1.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | El Rubio | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Adulator | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Almoreb | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Northern Luck | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celerity | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Battle Station | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sevier | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sharp Art | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He Takes Charge | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Reason to Soar | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Racer | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cheytac | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Warrant Officer | 1.40 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Yadi | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brodytheoxman | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Built for Battle | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Florida Flash | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strength | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Golden Rule Haven | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hardly Blue | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Kidd | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Consider | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Taraz | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Snaffle | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cove Bay | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sundae Smile | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Alley Music | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Camellia Gal | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Carefree Highway | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Screamin’ By | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 7 | Shanghai Tariff | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2B | 6 | Pastime | 0.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 4 | She’s All Skeet | 15.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 1 | Courtmewithcarats | 30.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Parking Ticket | 50.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 3 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 5 | Dream Boat Anna | 50.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 9 | Sweet Angel Roan | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 14 | Princess Athena | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 12 | Morticia | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 1 | Rocky Policy | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Tough Irma | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Mentality | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Moonlight Romance | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 10 | May Lily | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 16 | Lady T N T | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bonny South | 2.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Drop a Hint | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rising Seas | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Strong Flag | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fancified | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tap N Sway | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Olho de Mel | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Innovate | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | A J Rock | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Miss Hannah | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bonnet | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bossy Bride | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Whiskarita | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Runway Starlet | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Breakfast Pond | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Veiled Vixen | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Twice Around | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Lombo | 15.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 14 | 6 | Third Day | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 5 | Lone Rock | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 4 | Zero Gravity | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 3 | Afleet Ascent | 20.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Madison’s Luna | 30.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gunnison | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Souter (GB) | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Midnight Tea Time | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | My Bariley | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Secretary At War | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Mick’s Star | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | English Escort | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Spectacular Temper | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Longleggedlaverne | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | She’s Flashy | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Citrus Bloom | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rathrbluckythngood | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Viva La Secreta | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dear John Letter | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweaty Betty | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | La Perla | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Le Brise | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gold Ladybug | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Always Secret | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Madam Novetzke | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.