November 10, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | 1 | Hoboken | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Trebulski | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Highlight Reel | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eli’s Coming | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Atmos | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seek N Justice | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Superado | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Brand New Key | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8A | 8 | Wallet | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Why Stop Now | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stuart Hall | 1.60 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Monday Confession | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Moment Is Now | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mono | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mystic Tiger | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Due to His Charm | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Buster Brown Boy | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fighting for Grace | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Aspens Little Zip | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Despina | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fairly Honest | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Blue Chicory | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Princess Kiah | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fortressa | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rubys Memory | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Temperance Road | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boomerang Baby | 5.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Mica Bay | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mt. Mitchell | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Arabian Story | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Go for Jim | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jay Vee Bee | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Prince Zar | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tallestofthetall | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honoring Major | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mjolnir | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Campaign Spy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Spokane Eagle | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Bella Brown | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Charge the Line | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Here’s Carlos | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Red Clay Magic | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | King Valero | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cautious Giant | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Ike Walker | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | The Predictor | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Cedar Creek | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Rushed | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Mucho Macho Dan | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Chasingthegame | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Star Dog | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Garey Park | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Pleasantly Big | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Even Beat | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Elle’s Town | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Bentley’s Dream | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Rosie Bear | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lila Ruth | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Facts Don’t Matter | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Marquee Moment | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Headfirst | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mari Chuy | 50.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Trariti | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talbeya | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Miss Pinkerton | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Jeannie’s Beepbeep | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | We’re Still Here | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Court Sky | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Americain Joey | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Land Grant | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Revved | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Davidic Line | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Austrian | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Devil’s Drama | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Game Set and Match | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | John’s Rock | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Jerzees One | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Polished Copper | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Brodytheoxman | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Olympic Village | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Empty Tomb | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Night Ops | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Pirate’s Punch | 2.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Mesa | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Paddy O’Dini | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dazzling Truths | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Haunt | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Frolic More | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Invader | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Jostar | 3.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Ghostlore | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bless the Kitten | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lastchanceatglory | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Skyray | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classified Info | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Embrace the Grind | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Social Afleet | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Small Talk | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Trueno | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paintsville | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Subliminalcriminal | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Pitching Fast | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Duke of Carthania | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Water Wall | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Pow Wow Prince | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 18 | 18 | Unwavering | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.