November 9, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Clever Serve | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diamondcoat | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lunar Approach | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Glamorized | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | So Honest | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | P Boo | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Colorincolonel | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | My Dark Secret | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kimberley Dream | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cook Memories | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sure She’s Grand | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Morty | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Vice Versa | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Early Mischief | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One for Richie | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Make Noise | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cabot Trail | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stormin El Prado | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Ivyetsu | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Sa Font Salada | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Sista of War | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Longpants Required | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Go Stormin Girl | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 17 | 8 | Georgia Dawn | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Pact | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | She’s a Deal | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Penney | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Veer | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tomorra | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Catherineofaragon | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Teller to Sing | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Regal Passage | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sursum Corda | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Lucky Polly | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dream On Gorgeous | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Paigely | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hot Copy | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge Cacky | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | She’s Hot Today | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Princess in Charge | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dixie Moll | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | St. Louise | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Final Truth | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whoa Nellie | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Youngest Daughter | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Still There | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Out for a Spin | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Princess Causeway | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Oh So Terrible | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Arithmetic | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Our Bay B Ruth | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | East Moon | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Straitouttapopcorn | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Cubs Win | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Oh My | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | True Dream | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Don’t Tell Marge | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Roussalka | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 14 | 9 | Devant (FR) | 4.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Rushingirl | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Drinks On Me | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Joy Nidera (ARG) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Orageuse | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | V J’s Bet | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tryon Summer | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Arabella Bella | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Aife | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Weekend Fun | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Speighty Shirl | 8.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Halama | 10.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kilbarry Lady | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Fashion Frame | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Temisina | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Bay | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond and Silks | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Further Lane | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Art Collector | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Souper Dormy | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lykan | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Moon | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Munn Passage | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mr. Tip | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Self Taught | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nano | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Finnick the Fierce | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Commonwealth Turf S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 10 | Faraway Kitten | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mr Dumas | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 2 | Marquee Prince | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Armistice Day | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Spectacular Gem | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 15 | 11 | Proliferate | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Tiz Plus | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Tracksmith | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Knicks Go | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Louder Than Bombs | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Osage Moon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Tobacco Road | 50.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Clint Maroon (GB) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Pirate’s Punch | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Journeyman | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Clear Vision | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Nola Win | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Irish Roar (IRE) | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | New York Style | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Great Sense | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Not Fade Away | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Money On My Mind | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sir Michael | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Musical Man | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Hex | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Auto Correct | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.