November 3, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Sworn Silence | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | La Femme Royale | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dial Me | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Showit | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sky Vision | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sun Dress | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Saucy At Midnight | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dance Rhythms | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Shilah Baby | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Boujie Girl | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Diamond Crazy | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cardamon | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Goodbye Earl | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lesley’s Song | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Sister’s Creed | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lady C | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Moments to Saver | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Classy Justice | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unsweet Tea | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wings of Fury | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Traci’s Greeley | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Champagnerie | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Her Giant | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Belleinthecity | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | California Night | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | River Echo (GB) | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Futile | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Conqueror | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Altito | 3.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | California Swing | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fascilitator | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Flat Lucky | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Life Mission | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Road Game | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Going for Gold | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pintxos | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Eight Ain’t Enough | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Contractor Bill | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | King of Fortune | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Times Square | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Attorney Tim | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Lookin High | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Hypnotist | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Made My Day (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Donegal Aces | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Traffic Trouble | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 8 | Twixy Cat | 3.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Gran Hombre | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | No Problemo | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Uncle Andrew | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Go Go Girolamo | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Swiftman | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | The Big Bluff | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Raison Karter | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Awesome Ekati | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Wyoming Conquest | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drew | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Cold Smoke | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Mr. Kidd | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Brodytheoxman | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Super Valentine | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Try Try Again | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | U R Not So Bad | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Debating | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Mine My Time | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Box of Chocolates | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Ace Destroyer | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Nice of Me | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | All Around | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wild About Candy | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | His Giant | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Military Hop | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Nantan | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pull My Chain | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Volatile | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Coltonator | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Riverboat Gambler | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Haydens Havoc | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Royal Daaher | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | House Limit | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Easy Shot | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Equal Justice | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sterling Hope | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Factor This | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Parlor | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Krampus | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Exulting | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lamartine (BRZ) | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | El Picaro (CHI) | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Renaisance Frolic | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Colonelsdarktemper | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Just a Dream | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Blame | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | British Invader (GB) | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nautia | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lucky Be a Lady | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bella Kristina | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | War Eagle’s Love | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Grams Future | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Positive Vibes | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mushaboom | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Pebble Slinger | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.