November 1, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | C Islandsurprise | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sugar Cube | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Spearette | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Traumarama | 3.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Holy Cookie | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Katie the Cutie | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Atruevision | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Riddlemeree | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Lady Jenneviere | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady McKenzie | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Important | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Meritaten | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Gretchen | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Occasion | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Summer Express | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Lyonaisse | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Savvy Spender | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Street Dazzle | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | My Maiko | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Mesange | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Centerfold Angel | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sadi’s Hope | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Forever Shining | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Imnotsmall | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cape Bliss | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All Fact | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Hassle | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lady David | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Girls Got Track | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Pastoral | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Trapped Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Dreaming Diamonds | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Socata | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Karate Hottie | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blue Sky in Dixie | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Thunderous Gem | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Note to Selfie | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Harry | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nine Martinis | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gianna’s Gift | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Celtic Mischief | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Indian Cross | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Love My Boss | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Instigated | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Five Card Draw | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Archrival | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bahama Channel | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Warrant Officer | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Yadi | 15.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bring Me a Check | 20.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Boatswain | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Move It | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Drew | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Carignan | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Preacher Power | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Believeinholidays | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Eastside Boy | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Icy Street | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky Bode | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Logical Myth | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cornstarch | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Aqualityindividual | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Jumper | 4.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Singapore Flash | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Briar Jumper | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fluellen | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Days of Glory | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Heza Handful | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Traveling | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Palace Avenger | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Wicked Smart | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lucky Dime | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tickle | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Catechism | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | All in Harmony | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Speedy Vanessa | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Glorious Gal | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Too Pretty | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Beckinsale | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Music in the Air | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bella Mischief | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Halama | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sweet Bay | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Dancing Destroyer | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Ruby Y’all | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Dunph | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tina’s Exchange | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Musical America | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Principe Guilherme | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | El Asesino | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Elgar | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Best of Greeley | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Replete | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crosswalk | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Dream Supreme S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Mia Mischief | 1.20 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Meadow Dance | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ascot Day | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Shanghai Tariff | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Skamania | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Upset Brewing | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Pretty Greeley | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Reason | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Divine Queen | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carotari | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Recount | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Texas Wedge | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Firecrow | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Latent Revenge | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Boldor | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Kid Perfect | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vivid Verse | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Rubus | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Capture the Glory | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | I Can Do Anything | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Onthewaytonevrland (IRE) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Imma Bling | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Dance Proudly | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Sevier | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.