October 30, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Matrooh | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cowboy Rhythm | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Top of the Page | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pete Marwick | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | All About Ashley | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Testy Kitten | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Cheeseburger | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Baquero Flies | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run for the Gold | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Coneofuncertainty | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War of the North | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fuerte | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Alaskan Flyer | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Florida Flash | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Robinson | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Anywhere Road | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Skatingonthinice | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Mineyerownmalone | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Yes I See | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | On Patrol | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Levanto (ARG) | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Chicory Blue | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Animus | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Candy Carlos | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Zabava | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Mucha Mezquina | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jordan’s Kitten | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Hat Tip | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Breezy Bee | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Toleration | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 5 | Fun Paddy | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tiz Taken Back | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Unfading Beauty | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Olympic Smoke | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Dancing Waves (IRE) | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Northern Connect | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Don’teatmycookies | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arrowsphere | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Para Vivir | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Star Hunter | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Go Stellaire | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | She’s Got Friends | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Patti Patti Patti | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | Tulanian | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1A | 16 | Meritaten | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 9 | Scape | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Copper Quest | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Trapezium | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Almighty War | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lady McKenzie | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 3 | Stand Tall | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Honor Hop | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Prosser’s Kitten | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 5 | Urban Fairytale | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 4 | Miss Imperfection | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Dur a Cuire | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Diamond and Silks | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ora Del Vino | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Summer Express | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | New Frontier | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Luna’s in Charge | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Island Boy | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Proud Nation | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Chief Executive | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Brother Aaron | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 11 | Mountain Air | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 9 | Midnight Patriot | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 6 | Savvy | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 4 | Seclusive | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Real Man | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Whiskey Echo | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Westwood Proud | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Absolutely Aiden | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miltontown | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | I’m River | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | One for Richie | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Candy Store | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stallone | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Firery Tale | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Zuzanna | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1A | 8 | Miss Bigly | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 3 | Silver Shaker | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 6 | Frond | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Julia’s Ready | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Grandezza | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Romani | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Big Tina | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 5 | Palace Princess | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Landon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Confessing | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Lacustre (GB) | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Tweety Show | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Double Axel | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sweet Carli | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Final Adventure | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Runway Starlet | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Santa Ana Winds | 3.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sheza Rockstar | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Actress On Board | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Indomitable Spirit | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Flashy Biz | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Madam Pie | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.