October 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Emily’s Oasis | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Shell Shock | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Velvet Crush | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Artistic Jewler | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Memory Moment | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Party Lights | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Violenza | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dixieland Traffic | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kitten Empress | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Psycho Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Broadway Lady | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Diamond and Silks | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Scape | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tulanian | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Evil Lyn | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | His Glory | 1.80 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Banker’s Candy | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Motu | 1.60 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Competitive Fire | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Maggie’s Monarch | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Recklessness | 10.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ghost Fighter | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Speightstown Again | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cigar Box | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Halo Again | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | In Sky We Trust | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Brother Martin | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Decision Maker | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Majestic Ro | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Palace Miss | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tempers Rising | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | First Course | 6.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cleopatra’s Charm | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Seattle Slang | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rivercane | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | She Can’t Sing | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sense a Million | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dulcimer Dame | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 11 | Blood Moon | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Da Gold Room | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Continental Clash | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alex Joon | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Gold Endeavor | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Flug | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Montana Man | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Off the Meds | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Mr Superb | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Benelux | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Understand | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Koko Star | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Longclaw | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Proven Strategies | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | John’s Rock | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Field Pass | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Beyond Gone | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Alcools | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Life On the Road | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Prince James | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Pepper Pike | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Naughty Alfred | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | K W Captain Hook | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Olly Wonder | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Answer In | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Icecap | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Unwavering | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Race Driver | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Noble Empire | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cavalry Charge | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big League Benny | 20.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ajzal | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | McShady | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | El Supremo | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Banks Island | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Excession | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lido Legacy | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sounion | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Made Sense | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sharecropper | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Social Afleet | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Street Danza | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bigdaddy’sflyinghi | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Liam’s Legend | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Rags To Riches S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Finite | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Gone Glimmering | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Glamour | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Jingle | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Specially | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Curlinesque | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Spotted Ghost | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Street Sense S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | South Bend | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tap It to Win | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wheat King | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Silver Prospector | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fighting Seabee | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sprawl | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Axiomo | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Carpe Victoriam | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | American Butterfly | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Shotski | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Tip | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Beautiful Trauma | 3.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Foreign Exchange | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Irrepressible | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Bourbina | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Never Forget | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Areemaa | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Creative Legacy | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dynamite Gift | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Natoma | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dixie Roulette | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Aizu | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Summer Express | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Meritaten | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.