October 23, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Seeking Sheba Town | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kissthatbabygoodby | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Unbridled Outlaw | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Holding Fast | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | You’re Killin Me | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Here’s Carlos | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Brerry | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Shorely | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Paigely | 4.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Limage | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Stroll With Becca | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Elevententeetime | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Centerfold Angel | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kimberly Frances | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Abstain | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Warrior’s Path | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sovay | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Anywaythewindblows | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Tuxedo Lemon | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Platinum Gale | 30.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Small Moment | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Rhoda’s Jewell | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | No Time to Play | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Sequin | 1.40 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Yellen | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Clare’s | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lucrezia | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | A Wicked Wildcat | 30.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Veruca | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Momento | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet N Salty Kiss | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Argentinian Roots (IRE) | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stelia | 30.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Over There | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Claudette Nonstop | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | U S S Lexington | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Speedy Vanessa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mom’s Pass | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Tickle | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | Sunflower Rose | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hong Kong Helen | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Shackadelic | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Glass Ceiling | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Elusive Amelia | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hashtag Winner | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Mastercraft | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Forty Nine Model | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 1 | Lastbeatoftheband | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lady of Lahti | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wedontbelieveher | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Blackberry Lisa | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Cheap But Good | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 9 | Zypto | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Spirogyra | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Lontani | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Runaway Wind | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Sea Shark | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ice Sphere | 10.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 7 | Command Code | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Derby City | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Hitthegroundrunnin | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vitsal | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Uncatchable | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Nice of Me | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Warrior’s Dream | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Bulletin | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Jazzy Times | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Undrafted | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Smart Remark | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fareeq | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Nuclear Option | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Heartwood | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Royal Commish | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Great Wide Open (IRE) | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Holiday Stone | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bound for Nowhere | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Wilbo | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Done Deal | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Control Stake | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Alkhaatam | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tringale | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hunka Burning Love | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cinco Star | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Frolic More | 5.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Home Base | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fireman Oscar | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Preacher Power | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bundibunan | 1.60 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | J Beresford Tipton | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | High Mounte (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Job Security | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Lake Nakuru | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stage Ready | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Beautiful Wall | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Split the Wickets | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bila Shak | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Keeper | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Parade Field | 15.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Phantom Currency | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Bluegrass Parkway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Marshall Law (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Sherkali (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.