October 19, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Thoughtless | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Nonhelma | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sterling Miss | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Foxy Mischief | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Miss O’Hara | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Strip It Down | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Park Ridge Benny | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fridaynitestar | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | True West | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giant Boo Boo | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Colonel Pike | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Rock Can Tour | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Soul of Discretion | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bajan Cash | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Improviser | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Menace the Dennis | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rock Me | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swamp Ruler | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mustang Cat | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Chuckmate | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Peruvian Appeal | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Angel | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready to Runaway | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mae Never No (IRE) | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Enjay’s Brass | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Into Trouble | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ultimate Mo | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Passionof the Nile | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Compliant | 1.80 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Red Sorrell | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Freedom’s Flight | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hello America | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Third Edition | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Whata Perfect Day | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Shore Magic | 5.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Better Tapit | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Right On Kid | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Illidan | 20.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Maximiliano | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Elusive d’Oro | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Shanghai’s Dream | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bigmancan | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Newscaster | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Chitto | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Numidian | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tranquility Base | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eyes of Glory | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Peerless Brown | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Churn N Burn | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | In Charge | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Baudette Blizzard | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Arareco Lake | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Montmartre | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hidden Ruler | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Extra Medium | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Echo Alpha Six | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Smile Bryan | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Equal Justice | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Boss of Bourbon St | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bird Dog | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Maya Solomea | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Out Cold | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Mr. Monomoy | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Street | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hansens Mischief | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Marvin | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Wayne O | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | High Holy | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Bird in the Hat | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Gran Hombre | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kingpin | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Mega Max | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Bunch | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Mr. Big News | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Hidden Promise | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Breezy Money | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Kallio | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jehozacat | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Peru (GB) | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Boxwood | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Santino | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tough Irma | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Phantom Opening | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Valentine Wish | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Oh So Terrible | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maroubra (FR) | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cascanueces | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Sweet Arithmetic | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Vagabond Princess | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ambitious Moon | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Lexus Raven Run S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Royal Charlotte | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Irish Mischief | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Horologist | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | First Star | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Istan Council | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Needs Supervision | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bell’s the One | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Indian Pride | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oxy Lady | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Free Cover | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Restless Rider | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Sayyaaf | 2.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fooch | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Declined | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Uncapped | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Get Some Mo | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Joyful Heart | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Early Mischief | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Infinite | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vice Versa | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Master Guns | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Star of Kodiak | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chasin Charlie | 50.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Haydens Havoc | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Warrior’s Lullaby | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Howard Roark | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.