October 13, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Island Song | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Starting Point | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Majors Vindication | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Not Fade Away | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | He’s the Souperwon | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Alex’s Strike | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go for Jim | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Speed Effect | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Elite Class | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Curlin | 4.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Celtic Mischief | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bank | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Don Bourbon | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Czechmight | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tradin Up | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lido Legacy | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | My Sixth Sense | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Armchair Jockey | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Thirsty Betrayal | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Salvator Mundi | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Believeinholidays | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Untraceable | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dollar Blue | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Alittlevodka | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | King of Candy | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Logical Myth | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Two Emmys | 30.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moon Launch | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Mystical Moon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Snap Hook | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hardly a Secret | 2.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Malibu Pro | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Starship Zeus | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | No Funny Biz | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Adulator | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Curlins Vow | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strong Yen | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | All About Ashley | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Wicked Valentine | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Princess Renee | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Queenofcatniphill | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Pretti Xtreme | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Arbanne | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Queens Embrace | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Viva La Secreta | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Longleggedlaverne | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Melodic Maven | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Secret Revolution | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tolly Club | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Queen Bess | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Focused | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Paper Clip | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sensible Myth | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Change of Control | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Awesome Figure | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stillwater Cove | 2.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Novo Azul | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Libby Knows | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | V J’s Bet | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tobago | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Flat Meadow | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Domonette | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Winning Envelope | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ambassador Luna | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Beechwood Ella (IRE) | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Courtmewithcarats | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Predator | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risk Profile | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Telephone Talker | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Shared Sense | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Two Dot | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Silver Prospector | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Bourbon Wisdom | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Pyser’s Orb | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Civil Servant | 30.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Swiftman | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Benelux | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | River Stones | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | In Charge | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 7 | Hotshot Anna | 1.60 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | On Probation | 15.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Rocky Policy | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pastime | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9A | 8 | Aiken to Be | 1.60 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | May Lily | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Taylor’s Spirit | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | La Dame Blanche | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Take These Chains (IRE) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Upset Brewing | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Clearwater | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | The Rock Says | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mo Zone | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carte Blanche | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Franknjymme | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Claytnthelionheart | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morning Social | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | And Seek | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Seek the Peak | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Royal Mesa | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Ecru | 50.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Galindo | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Patagonia | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Gun It | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Johnny Strong | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.