Sports from the Basement

Keeneland Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, October 9, 2019

October 9, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Eastside Boy 2.50 3.4 6-1
8 8 Treasure Trove 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Bird 4.50 3.5 7-1
3 3 King Ford 3.50 3.9 7-1
4 4 War Veteran 10.00 5 9-1
2 2 Oro de Tejano 4.00 5.5 10-1
6 6 Sea Shark 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Who’syourfavorite 12.00 5.8 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 8 Tell Your Daddy 3.50 2.7 5-1
6 6 Embellisher 3.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Blankenbaker 5.00 3.9 7-1
3 3 Shared Legacy 6.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Contractor Bill 20.00 4.7 9-1
10 9 Hypnotist 20.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 King of Fortune 6.00 6 11-1
8 7 Mungojerrie 12.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Chief of Joy 20.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Alexander Hamilton 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Donnels Creek 8.00 2.9 5-1
7 6 Runningwscissors 6.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 Senor Jobim 5.00 3.4 6-1
5 4 El Asesino 4.00 3.6 7-1
4 3 Musical America 5.00 4.1 8-1
8 7 Elgar 6.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 K Choice 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Augie 6.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Hurricane Highway 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Dreaming Diamonds 4.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Bold Esther 6.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 She Be Addie 5.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Its Cold in Dehere 6.00 5.3 10-1
11 11 Socata 5.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Karate Hottie 12.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Rogue Too 8.00 6.2 12-1
10 10 Nine Martinis 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Wosie 12.00 7.3 14-1
7 7 Hoptown Honey 15.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Miss Perfecta 30.00 8.6 16-1
12 12 Weightlessness 15.00 9.8 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hard Count 3.00 2.1 4-1
10 10 Life Mission 4.00 2.4 5-1
5 5 Bold Paynter 15.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Times Square 10.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Fantastry (BRZ) 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Ramsey Solution 4.00 5.1 10-1
9 9 Attorney Tim 8.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Lookin High 10.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Triggerman 15.00 7.1 13-1
4 4 Count Again 12.00 7.6 14-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Honest Mischief 1.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Uber Kirk 8.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Airtouch 2.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Pony Up 15.00 4.5 9-1
9 8 Breaking News 15.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Tight Ten 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 American Mandate 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Bybee 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Bebop Shoes 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Jpmorgan Chase Jessamine S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Jezebel’s Kitten 4.00 3.5 7-1
14 13 Ask Bailey 12.00 4 8-1
4 4 Indochine 5.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Sweet Melania 4.50 5.5 10-1
1 1 Morning Gold 10.00 5.5 10-1
11 10 Swanage 8.00 6 11-1
12 11 High On Gin 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Envied 20.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Takeitback 20.00 7.7 14-1
15 14 Lemon Scat 15.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Fujairah 15.00 8.2 15-1
9 9 Diamond Sparkles 6.00 8.7 16-1
13 12 Eye of a Soldier 20.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Witez 15.00 11 21-1
10 10 Soothsaying 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Hollee Peach 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 5 Ready and Rich 10.00 3.4 6-1
11 8 Smart Warrior 6.00 3.7 7-1
12 9 New York Style 4.50 3.7 7-1
4 3 Panforte Di Siena 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 2 Babeswildweekend 15.00 4.9 9-1
8 6 Trashtalkinyankee 15.00 5.2 10-1
9 7 Korczak 10.00 5.7 11-1
2 1 Smart Arch 20.00 5.9 11-1
6 4 Populist 30.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Campaign Spy 5.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Holly Sun 5.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Sneads 6.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes Рthose are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.

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