October 6, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
Try SFTB Plus for Free
$10 a Month Gets You Horse Racing Advanced Stats including an optimizer for each race.
Sign up now and get 7 days free of charge!
Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ruler of the Nile | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tres Equis | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Griff | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Levanto (ARG) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Zaevion | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fascilitator | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Animus | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Here’s Carlos | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | J D’s Girl | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Evil Ways | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | What a Fox | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Midnight Sway | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Blue Sky in Dixie | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Quick Quick Quick | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Full of Grace | 6.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Giro Kate | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | War Ballad | 10.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | I’llmakeyousmile | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Strut the Ring | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Jerrid | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Peekacho | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Slick as Ice | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Frost Or Frippery | 3.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Risky Town | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lieutenant Colonel | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Mono | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mischievous Dancer | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Time Arches On | 50.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Trockette | 50.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Above Board | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Wild About You | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8A | 8 | Invader | 4.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Duke of Carthania | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Its My Bag Baby | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Animate | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Opposite Field | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blackberry Wine | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bless the Kitten | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Chapalu | 4.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Louwit | 50.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Hillbilly Deluxe | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Off the Meds | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Magic Michael | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Water Wall | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lido Legacy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tiny Danza | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Elite Class | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bellera | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clever Serve | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Tap Gun | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Grandaria | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | True Dream | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Profound Legacy | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Shacklette | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | High Regard | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Tempers Rising | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Glamour Girl | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Cara Caterina | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | First Course | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Palace Miss | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sense of Self | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rivercane | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Blame Debbie | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gretchen | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Grams Revenge | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Indian Summer S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mystic Lancelot | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kimari | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fast Scene | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Old Chestnut | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rockcrest | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chimney Rock | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Axiomo | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Johnny Unleashed | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Shippingport | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Dixiana Bourbon S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Field Pass | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Doc Boy | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Art Collector | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Prince of Thieves | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fighting Seabee | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Deviant | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Peace Achieved | 5.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Vitalogy (GB) | 4.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Gear Jockey | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Nettleton | 15.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Kid Mercury | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hurts So Good | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | The Third Secret | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Ete Indien | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Juddmonte Spinster S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Elate | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dunbar Road | 2.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Blue Prize (ARG) | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s a Julie | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vexatious | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Summer Delivery | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Hallawallah | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Urban Insight | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Grandezza | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boujie Girl | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Fun Finder | 4.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Believe in Victory | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Destiny’s Darling | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Wild Moment | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Letters to Belle | 30.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.