October 5, 2019 Keeneland Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hai Bobbi | 2.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Specially | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Drop a Hint | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hallajoori | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ivyetsu | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | She’s Mischief | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crafty Lady | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Imperfection | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Lucrezia | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Letter Storm | 20.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Catechism | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Busby Spring | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Ready to Charm | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Whoa Nellie | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gotham Gala | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alberobello | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Beach Flower | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | In the Mood | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s Pretty Lucky | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Youngest Daughter | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Dane (ITY) | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Solomini | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kurilov (CHI) | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Guest Suite | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Major Cabbie | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Third Day | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Portal | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Malibu Max | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Flight Time (BRZ) | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Altito | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ghostlore | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Portos | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blood Moon | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Continental Clash | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sprawl | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pow Wow Prince | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Whisky Man | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Skyray | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Social Afleet | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bracketologist | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bigdaddy’sflyinghi | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Trueno | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lucky Curlin | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Elite Class | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Alcools | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Peruvian Boy | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Beyond Gone | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | South Bend | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Discreet Tiger | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Great Ulysses | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Night Code | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai Moon | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wheat King | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mister Not Funny | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Henry the Cat | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Woodford S. Presented By Keeneland Select
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Imprimis | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Extravagant Kid | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Leinster | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Stubbins | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Satellite Storm | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fareeq | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smart Remark | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Win Lion Win | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Royal Commish | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Seven Trumpets | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Thoroughbred Club Of America S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Chalon | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Ours to Run | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Spiced Perfection | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mia Mischief | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Talk Veuve to Me | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dawn the Destroyer | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Danuska’s My Girl | 6.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Razorback Lady | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Pretty Greeley | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – First Lady S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 10 | Rushing Fall | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Juliet Foxtrot (GB) | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Uni (GB) | 4.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Vasilika | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Indian Blessing (GB) | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mitchell Road | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Awesometank (GB) | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Storm the Hill | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Ms Bad Behavior | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 13 | Hanalei Moon | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Just Wonderful | 12.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Marina’s Legacy | 50.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Hardcandy | 50.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Simply Breathless (GB) | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | By Your Side | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tap It to Win | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Gouverneur Morris | 2.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Enforceable | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ajaaweed | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Maxfield | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | January Won | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | American Butterfly | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Life On the Road | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | King Theo | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Shadwell Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Valid Point | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Divisidero | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bowies Hero | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Admission Office | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Real Story | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bandua | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond Oops | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Suedois (FR) | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Next Shares | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | First Premio | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | March to the Arch | 12.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Robin of Navan (FR) | 10.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Van Beethoven | 10.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Vintager (GB) | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Get Western | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Emaraaty (GB) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Motu | 4.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Bird Map | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Further Lane | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rising Seas | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Honor Hop | 12.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Could You | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Street of Dreams | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pythoness | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mom’s Pass | 4.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Too Pretty | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Shes Not Not Fast | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bella Mischief | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Glass Ceiling | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.