October 3, 2019 Santa Anita Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Cellar Door | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miss Stormy D | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Raneem | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Chocolate Speights | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Be a Shero | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Factor of Two | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Miss Tokyo | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Erebuni | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winsinfashion | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Be Lifted Up | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rattle | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | All Tea All Shade | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 9 | Discreet Diva | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Appolina | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Heart of the Nile | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Lucky Stepper | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Muthhila (IRE) | 2.50 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Chalky (IRE) | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Greater Glory | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Girl Can Partie | 15.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Avalon Ride | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Dime for Me | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Fort Love | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lil Bit Dangerous | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Incredibly Lucky | 2.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sheza Factor | 1.60 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zillinda | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | And Counting | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fuega | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Any Two Cards | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Great Return | 1.80 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Foxtail | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Don’t Blame Judy | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Poster Girl (GB) | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lucky Peridot | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | K P Slickem | 2.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Animosity | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | My Journey | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | An American Jet | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Go Sammy Go | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | New Salute | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | R B Eye | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ohtani | 2.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Starship Chewy | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Tinnie | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunriser | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sapori Girl | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Katsaros | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Dulverton Darling | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Daddy’s Melody | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | So Much Happy | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bella Figura (IRE) | 2.50 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Willowglade | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Prance | 8.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Morning Cynn | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Decorated for Gold | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.