September 28, 2019 Woodbine Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Royal Fuerst | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stash the Cash | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Historical Judith | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lucky Street | 2.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Worker | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | White Sage | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cepelinas | 10.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Our Zuma | 6.00 | 12.7 | 24-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Thor’s Thunder | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Have a Souper Day | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Holy Saint | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Prince Valeski | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Orazio | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | See Forever | 10.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Baytown Chapel | 20.00 | 12.9 | 24-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Truecrest | 10.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Durham Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | The Great Day (ARG) | 2.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Special Forces | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Aheadbyacentury | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Say the Word | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Thor’s Rocket | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Joy’s Solution | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | No Question | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Forest Lass | 3.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Golden Pearl | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Stokes | 4.50 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Musical Flight | 10.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Kay Syrah Syrah | 10.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz My Right | 4.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Souper Pecan | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Reining In | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Brut Rose | 20.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Fullthrottlevision | 20.00 | 16.8 | 32-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cassie’s Rainbow | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Lenches Gimme | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Queen Andher Court | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Mintaka Belle | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Bearakontie | 3.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Saratoga Vision | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bossalina | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cairo Diamond | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Merveilleux | 2.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Souper Sugar Shack | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Special Honor | 3.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Anita Grigio | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | La Paquita | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sararenda | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Born to Be Good | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Foxy Power | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wine Not Bourbon | 3.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chaldea | 4.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Top Hat Boss | 10.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sterling Speed | 20.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Friday Night Magic | 15.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Peggy’s Cove | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lilibet | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orbortunistic | 2.50 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Canadian Eh | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Not Orbinary | 3.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mamita’s Chica | 8.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Happycrest | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Hanchy | 3.50 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stormy Vision | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Princess Moro | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sparkle Sammy | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dancing Doll | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Savvy | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Foxxy Belle | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sanity | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Charmaine’s Mia | 20.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Island Reward | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silent Respect | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Magic Spell | 3.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Goldtown | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Without a Doubt | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Ontario Derby
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Global Access | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Jungle Fighter | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Avie’s Flatter | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Roaring Forties | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Armistice Day | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Solidify | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Holyanna | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Desert Poem | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Niigon’s Spin | 2.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Piper’s Legacy | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Lake Manitou | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Canadian Magic | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Articulate | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Royal Wedding | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Samurai Queen | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Descente | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ami’s Link | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Cortado Bay | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Power House | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Silent Tango | 6.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Audrey Grace | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Londonderry | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 4 | 4 | She’s a True Fox | 8.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Delly | 20.00 | 15.4 | 29-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.