September 28, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Cash Offer | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Flat Calm | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | My Roxy Girl | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Our Super Nova | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Maiden Beauty | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bertranda | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Puffery | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | First Deputy | 3.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Captain Bombastic | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hellbender | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Somethingtotellyou | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Go Rudy Go | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Unrelenting Force | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Our Troubadour | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dangerous Edge | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Quarky | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Power Player | 5.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Everyonelovesjames | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lonhtwist | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | The Big S | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Digital Footprint | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Swamp Rat | 3.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Proschema | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Halstaat | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – Vosburgh S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Imperial Hint | 0.60 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Promises Fulfilled | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Firenze Fire | 2.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Call Paul | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Brown Buckeye | 30.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | American Power | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Our Little Jewel | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Boxer Rebellion | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princesa Caroline | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Laughable | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bramble Berry | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cove Bay | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Aziza | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Leah Chase | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Sinister Siren | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Flatter Me | 8.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Toledo | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Americanus | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Juulstone | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mandatory | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Modernist | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ethos | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Vaya Con Dios | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Beachwalker | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Trash Talker | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | First Appeal | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | High Jingo | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Saratoga Treasure | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stonefactor | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Theaterintheround | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Merlins Muse | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Hollywood Cat | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Wantagh Queen | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Beldame S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Midnight Bisou | 0.40 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Wow Cat (CHI) | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Spring in the Wind | 30.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Another Broad | 20.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Crimson Frost | 30.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Vexatious | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pilgrim S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tuggle | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Famished | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Andesite | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Our Country | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Maxwell Esquire | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Structor | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | No Word | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | No Lime | 30.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | The Gray Blur | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Jockey Club Gold Cup S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Preservationist | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Code of Honor | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Vino Rosso | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Tacitus | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Olympic Village | 30.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Chantry Flats | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Betterment | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Malthael | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Perceived | 4.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mo Fun | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Border Town | 3.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Motataabeq | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Going for Gold | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Dillon Rocks | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Superfan | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.