September 27, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Unveiling | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shell Fire | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Silverzar | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Cowboys Dream | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Moose Got Even | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tazon | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Centsmybabyleftme | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harlan’s Vador (ARG) | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Oh Bene | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Timbrook | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fayetteville | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Gaia’s Doublelatte | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Plug and Play | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Eskendereyas Dream | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Fast Fairy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Run This Town | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Macho Madness | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tauber | 4.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Direct Approach | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Go Get That | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Military Hop | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stock Chain | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dance Kingdom | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Chasing History | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Georgia Deputy | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Packed House | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 1 | Peruvian Appeal | 2.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ultimate Mo | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Into Trouble | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Brunette Princess | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Dark Corner | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Broadway Cat | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | One Man Party | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Surge Pricing | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Cajun Firecracker | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Time On Target | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Unmoored | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Pryor | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hollywood Star | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Sovereign Impact | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Steel Shot | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Future Abundance | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hyndford | 12.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Omen of Change | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Absolutely Aiden | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Spirogyra | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Grade One | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | He’s Stylish | 3.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Passion Play | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stay Happy | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Enzoexpress | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Yankee Seven | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | One for Richie | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Wild About Candy | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Better Charge It | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Creme de Cerise | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Early Mischief | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | River Echo (GB) | 4.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Exemplar | 4.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Create Again | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Matrooh | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Kearny County | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | On Patrol | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Iconic | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Adulator | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Flat Lucky | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Moon Over Montana | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Lovely Loyree | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Coach Rocks | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Daddy’s Boo | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Story Time | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Valentine Wish | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Vagabond Princess | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Phantom Opening | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tough Irma | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cascanueces | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Sweet Arithmetic | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Oh So Terrible | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Relentless Dancer | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Atoka | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 13 | 11 | Bango | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Newscaster | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Eyes of Glory | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silver State | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 11A | 9 | Seven and Seven | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Money for Mischief | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | In Sky We Trust | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Ajzal | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Yashima | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hometown Pride | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Obiwan | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Zarmae | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Street Danza | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16A | 16 | Unthrottled | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Dugout | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Where Paradise Lay | 4.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dunph | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Frolic More | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Donnels Creek | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Manny Wah | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Uncle Chad | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dazzling Truths | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Mr Dumas | 8.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Armchair Jockey | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kid Lemuel | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Face of Victory | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lake Nakuru | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Last Strike | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Split the Wickets | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Stage Ready | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Fireball Shot | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cha Vez | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Bila Shak | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | El Ahijado | 50.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Dollar Blue | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tito Tonight | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | British Humor | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Perfect Beam | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 17 | 17 | Dr. Hipp | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.