September 21, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Jumpin Thru Hoops | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Ice Sphere | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Afleet Roger | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Plug and Play | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Scooter’s Boy | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tropical Cognac | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Written Permission | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Vencedora | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Smilin Cobra | 10.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Level Seventeen | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Illume | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Depot Red | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | U. S. Warrior | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Wallet | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Soul Wind | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Helluva Life | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Social Circle | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mo Gayle | 3.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Resurrection Road | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blunt Force | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sooner Schooner | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ready Orb Not | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Evil Lyn | 1.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Marinette | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tetrahydro | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Miss Firecracker | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Chambers Creek | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Black Kat Taps | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | The Mary Rose | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rhythm Tree | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond and Silks | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Pick Up the Fone | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Symphony Hall | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Flyer | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Richies Great Girl | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Top Hat Charmer | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fed Policy | 3.50 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | More Than Charming | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Visual Artist | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Archrival | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Kentucky Peerless | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Naughty Alfred | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baquero Flies | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | The Flasche | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Grays the Bar | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Game Set and Match | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Soar Like an Eagle | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Little Dragon | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pray for Jake | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Wicked Wednesday | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Five Boroughs | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Florida Flash | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Davidic Line | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hard Code | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Desert Image | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sky Vision | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Myositis Mystique | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Unfading Beauty | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Saints’ Girl | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Extreme Caution | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Don’teatmycookies | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Parking Ticket | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tickety Boo | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Secret Trick | 12.00 | 9.3 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Paigely | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sweet Addison | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Drop Dead Gorgeous | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gun Club | 2.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Field Daisey | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Neon Light | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Vegan Goes Best | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stroll With Becca | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Punish | 15.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Savvy Spender | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Her Giant | 15.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Tropical Drive | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Lil Brown Sparrow | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Stolen Beauty | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Lady C | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Go Away | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cape Angel | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | High Promise | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Louder Than Bombs | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Renaisance Frolic | 5.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bemma’s Boy | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | He’s Cheeky | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Honovi | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | County Court | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | El Bonito | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Josie | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Well Spent | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Allied Party | 30.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | American Legend | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Wasabi Girl | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Just Fly | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Indy Takes Charge | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7A | 7 | Kay Bee Gee | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Judy’s Way | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Monedas de Oro | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Banker’s Candy | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Baileston Lassie | 30.00 | 10.3 | 20-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Dogwood S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Covfefe | 0.60 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Istan Council | 10.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bell’s the One | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Champagne Anyone | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Angel | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Free Cover | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Hey Kitten | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Addison | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | In Good Spirits | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rathrbluckythngood | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Seattle Slang | 5.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Egyptian Princess | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mastercraft | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Turnstone | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Go Stormin Girl | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lincoln Center | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Rain Dance | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | She Can’t Sing | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Causeway Royce | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Creative Legacy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Catherineofaragon | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.