September 21, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sir Ballantine | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Data Driven | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Shareholder Value | 1.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Aristocratic | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tale of Mist | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gorgeous Charli | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Fusi | 0.80 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Crater Rim | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Gunboat Diplomacy | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Frosty Linz | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Simmering Miss | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alreadycelebrating | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Low Is Laine | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Meet Me in L A | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Gio d’Oro | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Dark N Cloudy | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | King Cause | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | En Wye Cee | 0.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Patagonia | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Eagerly | 1.40 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8A | 7 | U S Delta Force | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Glynn County | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kinenos | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mr. Shortandsimple | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Upham | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Plan of Attack | 3.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tiesto | 6.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cowtown | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Talent Scout | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 4A | 3 | Elios Milos | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Laughing Manners | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ari’s Naughty Luca | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Call the Cat | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Johnny Wishbone | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Major Flirt | 4.50 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | One More Tom | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Coach Villa | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7A | 7 | Bustin Mach Four | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Candy Tycoon | 0.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Aasr | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Rising | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stop Asking | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sixteen Tons | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4A | 4 | Positive Impact | 4.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Spycraft | 4.50 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Kelleycanrun | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Balon Rose | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Silver Kitten | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Estill | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Shelter Island (FR) | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Timing | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | In Front | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Perfect View | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Elle M’a Souri (FR) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Noble Damsel S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Valedictorian | 3.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Significant Form | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bellavais | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stella di Camelot (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Capla Temptress (IRE) | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Betty F (GB) | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Big Muddy | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Quick Entry | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mental Model | 2.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Super Silver | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Violent Delights | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sargeant Drive | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Dark Storm | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ventus | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelso H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Prince Lucky | 2.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pat On the Back | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Plainsman | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | True Timber | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Monongahela | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tale of Silence | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Golden Brown | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Hit a Provisional | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Star of the East | 4.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pioneerof New York | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Tempers Way | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Summer Squeeze | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Barrel of Destiny | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | She’s Dreamin | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Citizen Matzo | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mrs. Orb | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Louisiana Lady | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Cirque | 30.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Pecatonica | 20.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kerry’s Ring | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.