Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, September 21, 2019

September 21, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.


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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sir Ballantine 5.00 2.8 5-1
6 5 Data Driven 2.50 2.8 5-1
4 4 Shareholder Value 1.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Aristocratic 6.00 3 6-1
2 2 Tale of Mist 8.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Gorgeous Charli 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Fusi 0.80 1.9 4-1
5 5 Crater Rim 4.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Molly’s Nighthawk 8.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Gunboat Diplomacy 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Frosty Linz 6.00 5.6 11-1
6 6 Simmering Miss 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Alreadycelebrating 15.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Low Is Laine 15.00 7.7 14-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Meet Me in L A 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Gio d’Oro 8.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Dark N Cloudy 20.00 3.2 6-1
6 5 King Cause 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 En Wye Cee 0.60 3.7 7-1
5 5 Patagonia 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 3 Eagerly 1.40 2 4-1
8A 7 U S Delta Force 3.00 2.7 5-1
7 6 Glynn County 4.00 4.2 8-1
6 5 Kinenos 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 4 Mr. Shortandsimple 15.00 5 9-1
2 1 Upham 10.00 6.3 12-1
3A 2 Plan of Attack 3.00 7 13-1
9 8 Tiesto 6.00 9.3 18-1
1 1 Cowtown 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 5 Talent Scout 3.50 2.7 5-1
4A 3 Elios Milos 4.00 3 6-1
9 6 Laughing Manners 6.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Ari’s Naughty Luca 12.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Call the Cat 12.00 4 8-1
5 4 Johnny Wishbone 8.00 5.2 10-1
10 7 Major Flirt 4.50 8.3 16-1
3 3 One More Tom 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Coach Villa 6.00 SCRATCH
7A 7 Bustin Mach Four 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Candy Tycoon 0.80 2.3 4-1
1 1 Aasr 3.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Bourbon Rising 10.00 4.1 8-1
2 2 Stop Asking 15.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Sixteen Tons 6.00 5.3 10-1
4A 4 Positive Impact 4.50 5.7 11-1
3A 3 Spycraft 4.50 6.7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Kelleycanrun 3.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Balon Rose 2.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Silver Kitten 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Estill 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 7 Shelter Island (FR) 4.50 6.3 12-1
5 5 Sweet Timing 15.00 6.4 12-1
9 8 In Front 6.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Perfect View 8.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Elle M’a Souri (FR) 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Noble Damsel S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Valedictorian 3.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Significant Form 2.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Bellavais 3.50 3.5 7-1
2 2 Stella di Camelot (IRE) 4.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Capla Temptress (IRE) 4.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Betty F (GB) 15.00 5.4 10-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Big Muddy 3.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Quick Entry 5.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Mental Model 2.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Super Silver 4.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Violent Delights 8.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Sargeant Drive 12.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Dark Storm 8.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Ventus 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Kelso H.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 4 Prince Lucky 2.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Pat On the Back 3.00 2.6 5-1
6 5 Plainsman 4.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 True Timber 4.50 3.4 6-1
1 1 Monongahela 6.00 4.3 8-1
7 6 Tale of Silence 12.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Golden Brown 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Allowance)

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Hit a Provisional 4.00 2.8 5-1
10 9 Star of the East 4.50 3.6 7-1
4 4 Pioneerof New York 6.00 5 9-1
13 12 Tempers Way 8.00 5 9-1
12 11 Summer Squeeze 8.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Barrel of Destiny 10.00 6 11-1
6 6 She’s Dreamin 12.00 6 11-1
11 10 Citizen Matzo 20.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Mrs. Orb 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Louisiana Lady 20.00 7.6 14-1
9 8 Cirque 30.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Pecatonica 20.00 9.5 18-1
8 8 Kerry’s Ring 3.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.