September 21, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hero of Gold | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stormy Bray | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Mora Valley | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Klassy Karalynn | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speed to Victory | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Emmastwinklingstar | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rain Forestry | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sum Silver | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Ain’t Dat Sweet | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Furbein | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sharing a Laugh | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | U Turn the Page | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Oriental Lady | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | American Biz | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | See Grace Fly By | 12.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blanco Brush | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Tommytoshort | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Harry the Hitman | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mighty Might | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Intrysting | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sequins Storm | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Galahad Kid | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Talking Zip | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | McLance | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Patch’s Lugh | 4.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Word of Truth | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Match Play | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Easter Music | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Full of Run | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Bold Friends | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sacramento Q | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Willow Ridge | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Lee’s Luck | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Offlee Fun | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Oh So Tall | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Prairie Chief | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Straight Shooter | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 13 | Orcus | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 8 | Herbie | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Golden Dart | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Cadet Captain | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cut to Order | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Nobody Move | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Voluptuous | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 11 | Maligator | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Dixie | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Camalus | 6.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Regal Kitten | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Sacred Legacy | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Campioni | 30.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Constancia | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Arrowsphere | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lady Express | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Daneira | 5.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Almafuerte | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Kalliste Rose | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Lucky At Justice | 4.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Superstar Diva | 12.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Running Vicky | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | First Hoosier | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Logi | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Majestic Pride | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | A P Is Loose | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 11 | Cammack | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Christian C | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Blue Sky Kowboy | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Don’task Don’ttell | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | My Bariley | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Ruffolo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 10 | Gettysburg | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sailing Solo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Surf Shack | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Bulldog of Bergen | 15.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Epic (ARG) | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Sho Poke | 20.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | The Remainder | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Tims Hope | 2.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Charge Card | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Drama Star | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Country Cool | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dancin Nicky | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Valid Storm | 4.50 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | City Position | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Monsieur Brown | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Magician’s Bags | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speared | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.