September 20, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Singanothersong | 2.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Barnyard Fiddler | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Superstar Leo | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | M C Squared | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Kyzan | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | He’s Dann Good | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Revolt | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | A J’s Posse | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Franklin County | 30.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Behind Enemy Lines | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Ioya Again | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Old Fitz | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 2 | You Split Tens | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Tres Generaciones | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overnight Success | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 1 | Donivan My Boy | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Slippy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | What a Hoot | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Full Count | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Hat Tip | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Peace Love Bread | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Americanperfection | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mistletoe Miss | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Go Yeowomen | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Pure Sugar | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mad Grace | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Bahama Kitten | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jukebox Money | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | According to Aspen | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Bean | 1.80 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Moorac | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Red Carpet | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Mimi’s Awesome | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | La Negra Noche | 20.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Ray’s Silver Storm | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Piece of My Heart | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Chills and Fever | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Badger Girl | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cowgirl Kimmie | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Honey Mug | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Run Tappy | 3.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Mr D’s Way | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Consultation | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Teddy Time | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Irish Proud | 3.50 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Miracle Mountain | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Big Dinner | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Suspenders | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Fleetway | 30.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Camalus | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 6 | Timingiseverything | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Unite the Masses | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Prince Arlo | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Syrup | 20.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Oprah’s Ranger | 20.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Justenufftuff | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Atlas | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Mr. Papillon | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Landing Gear | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pamir | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | The Kahn | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Contraction | 3.50 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Trappe Valley | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | R Fast Life | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Spectacular Road | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Liberal Lunacy | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Our Thomas | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Danny B | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Omar Attack | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Supermans Cape | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Arrival | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Notacatbutacard | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Little Mighty Man | 12.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Regal Serenade | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Snattered | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Tannah’blu | 4.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Trophy Bridle | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Enchanted Sunrise | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Channel Princess | 3.50 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Risky Risky Risky | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Russian Mafia | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rare Action Attack | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Winning Quality | 15.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lemon Drop Twist | 20.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | In Focus | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.