September 19, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Krsto Skye | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ruler of the Nile | 1.60 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Griff | 12.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tres Equis | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Midnight Las Vegas | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zaevion | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pat Daddy | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Riverboat Gambler | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Encinitas | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Nola Win | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Ready and Rich | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Starting Point | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Macho Jack | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Highlight Reel | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trashtalkinyankee | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Korczak | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Sultry Samurai | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Smart Arch | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Grove Daddy | 20.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baringer Spring | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Majors Vindication | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Island Song | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Count Again | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Got My Mo | 5.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ike Walker | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Ransack | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Above Board | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mark My Way | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Gladtobehere | 4.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Frost Or Frippery | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Celerity | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Dancing Destroyer | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Misty Blue | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Boomtown | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Jilted Bride | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Lustica | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Turtle Trax | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Areemaa | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Sweet N Salty Kiss | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Goulding | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Take Charge Patti | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Auction Fever | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Sense a Million | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Diamond and Silks | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Maga Suite | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Congrats Answer | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | It’s Complicated | 3.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Just a Dream | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tricky Tune | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Breezy Bee | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sistas Ready | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Liner | 6.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pass It On | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dance the Day Away | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Swiss Dot | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rushingirl | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Heaven Escape | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | La Incondicional | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Banshee Birdie | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Sooner Schooner | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Joysome | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Glamour Girl | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Big Boss Lady | 12.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hong Kong Helen | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Glorious Gal | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ready to Play | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Speightful Charge | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Saxony | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tynan | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Recoded | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Dream On Gorgeous | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Black Kat Taps | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bourbina | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | She’s Mischief | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Tetrahydro | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Hollee Peach | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Troubling Moon | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Can’t Hide From Me | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Franknjymme | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Winnipesaukee | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Wicked Indeed | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kaziranga | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ecru | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sharp Prospect | 8.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Anothrdayatthelake | 30.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Red Sorrell | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Third Edition | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rock On Kitten | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Reach the Moon | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Phantom Currency | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Blankenbaker | 10.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | North Dakota | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Candizar | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Illidan | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Big Time Player | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Herbies Toys | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.