September 19, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Lonesome Glory H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Winston C (IRE) | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Scorpiancer (IRE) | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moscato (GB) | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Surprising Soul | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Redicean (GB) | 15.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Belisarius (IRE) | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hinterland (FR) | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bedrock (GB) | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | All the Way Jose | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Our Honor | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Later Cat | 0.60 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Kazmandude | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fortune Smiles | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Wisecrack | 20.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Revenio | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flying Pleasantly | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Desert Lights | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mohican | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Booby Trap | 12.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Thesis | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dooley | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Whatdoesasharksay | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lady Rosalie (IRE) | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stiva | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Pallas Athene | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Andi’s Kitten | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Know Point Given | 50.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7B | 5 | Alms | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | One Mississippi | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Moral Reasoning | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Look Me Over | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Myfirstexwife | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3A | 2 | Logic N Reason | 2.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 10A | 7 | Boston Beauties (IRE) | 2.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Lookn Fine as Wine | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Ellie’s Smile | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Over Thirsty | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5B | 5 | Sea of Blue | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Winning Melody | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Strike Magic | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Twisted Tom | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Uncle Sigh | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Three to Thirteen | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carthon | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Durkin’s Call | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Control Group | 1.60 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | I Love Jaxson | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Hoboe | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Belgrano | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Value Engineering | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Morning | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bluegrass Parkway | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | J Beresford Tipton | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Carom | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Curlin’s Legacy | 50.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Krewe Chief | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tide of the Sea | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Morality Clause | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Ella Brilla | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shyza | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lady Kaza | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | La Negrita | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Jazzy Lady | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sweet Leaf | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Positive Power | 12.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Wicked Kheisha | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Devils Rendezvous | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.