September 18, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Majestic Waters | 1.60 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Templesis | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tomasita | 15.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Her Name Is Um | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ice for That Burn | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Johnny Chadda | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Musket Hunter | 12.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Idaho Tornado | 1.80 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Libor Plus | 1.60 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | A P Fireball | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Da Goose | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lena Horne | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tay Town | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Wary Carrie | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | R Marie | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Polly War Cry | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stormy Empire | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Mixin It Up | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Destiny’s Love | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Minadeo | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Livys Dream | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 3 | English Investor | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Sea of Makebelieve | 20.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Love Your Buttons | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Maligator | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Round Hill | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Yourdecisionotmine | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Suzdal | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Bumptybumpbump | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 5 | Kielbasa | 30.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Roar of the Lion | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Dragunov | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Workingforaliving | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Al Taweel | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Jobim | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Data Breach | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Silent Fame | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Ready’s Mission | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | I Am too Wild | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Fist of Rage | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hallie’s Hero | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Demand Ransom | 3.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | J Z’s Last Try | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Greeleys Ice | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Baba Tobi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Miss Vicki | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Northern Alliance | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tapnfire | 30.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Orca | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Expressly | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Odachi | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Tinderella | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Wildwood Scat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Voluptuous | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 2 | Little Chick | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Chosen Facts | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Country Jazz | 5.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our Pal Gordy | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Crealock | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yadi | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Turfmeister | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | High Heater | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Just Ben | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | War of the North | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Stormy Gamble | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Ry’s Revenge | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Let Me Lead | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Suvorov’s Hero | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Sister Ruler | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Run Your Race | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Desani’s Chance | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Insane Lifestyle | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | One Way Home | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Christmas Cookie | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Cat’s Runaway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Rock Can Tour | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Just Run | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Stormin El Prado | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Swither’s Shortcut | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Radiant Castle | 20.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bold Attack | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.