September 15, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Thunderous Gem | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | What a Fox | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | I’llmakeyousmile | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Karma | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | A. P. Princess | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Giro Kate | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | War Ballad | 6.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Brerry | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Top of the Page | 4.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Stay Home | 3.50 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Here’s Carlos | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | You’re Killin Me | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Clay Magic | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dingdingdingding | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Shackleford County | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Flat Awesome Jenny | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Alizee | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Art Buff | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Harmony Victory | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fashionablyawesome | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Girls Know Best | 2.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Recount | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Satellite Storm | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Jazzy Times | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Imma Bling | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Afleet Ascent | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tia Flor | 50.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Pete’s Play Call | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Transatlantic Kiss | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Madison’s Luna | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Overzealous | 3.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stormy Pacific | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mystic Tiger | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Jingle Me This | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Due to His Charm | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Buster Brown Boy | 10.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Star Dog | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sergeant McNerney | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Call Me Richard | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | El Venue | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Weiland | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Eternal Force | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Intonation | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Honduras | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Big Al | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Midland | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Rio Bueno | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Frigate Fire | 12.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mason A. P. | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Just a Coinkydink | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Shakes Creek | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Warrior’s Lullaby | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Commandeering | 3.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 11 | 11 | He’s No Bull | 4.50 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Freefall | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Homeview | 20.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Gigging | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Top Mention | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Valycove | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Felipe | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Town Drunk | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Fra Mauro | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Salvator Mundi | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Untraceable | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Believeinholidays | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Grand Meister | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Briar Jumper | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Professional | 30.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Days of Glory | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Point to Dunkirk | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hurry Back | 10.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Moon Launch | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Bad Boy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Weekly Call | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sally’s Curlin | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Evil Ways | 12.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Diamondcoat | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tap Gun | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Miz Shelton | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True Dream | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Beautiful Tale | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | I’mluckysgirl | 30.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Shacklette | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Sara Sea | 10.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 3A | 3 | Cardamon | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Whimsical Muse | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Quotation | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Getridofwhatailesu | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lesley’s Song | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Newellton | 3.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Kiss More | 15.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Canadian Sunset | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Every Single Day | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sister Hanan | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Pretty Zippy | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.