September 14, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Napoleon’s Empire | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Echelon | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Macho Madness | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Cantrell Hill | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Autumn Ruler | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Harpers First Ride | 4.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Rayo de Luz | 8.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gaia’s Doublelatte | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | I’m Busy | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lngtermrelationshp | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Grit and Glory | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Carte Blanche | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Galindo | 4.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | War Veteran | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 10 | Baudette Blizzard | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tiny Danza | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Bango | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fearless Rocket | 5.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Indian Cross | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Austrian | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Shanghai Moon | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Instigated | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Baby White Sox | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | It’s Mandatory | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | No Ka Oi | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Deanos Cape | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Answer In | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Shanghai’s Dream | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Land Grant | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Substantial | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | South Bend | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 12 | Cigar Box | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cavalry Charge | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Beverly Park | 6.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | November Mike | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Be Fierce | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bank | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Falkirk | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Fight Fight Fight | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 9 | Cardiac Kid | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Homebred | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Achievable | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Lonely Private | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | In the Deep | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Suggested | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bama Breeze | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Gobarrybarry | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Trueno | 20.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lido Legacy | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Louwit | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12A | 12 | Jack Beanstalk | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Straight Shot | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Uber Kirk | 4.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Bump Bailey | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Debating | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 14 | 12 | Proliferate | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bourbon Calling | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Holly Blame | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Grade One | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Hidden Ruler | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bebop Shoes | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Volatile | 4.50 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Breaking News | 20.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Soap Bubble | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tio Mosco | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Open Mind S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Headland | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Ascot Day | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Honey Bunny | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Awestruck | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Upset Brewing | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Divine Queen | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Meadow Dance | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | America’s Tale | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Stakes) – Locust Grove S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mylady Curlin | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Escape Clause | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Moonlit Garden | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cosmic Burst | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Pink Sands | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Rose of Malibu | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Go Google Yourself | 3.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Skeptic | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Red Dane (ITY) | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Pocahontas S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Portrait | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Morning Gold | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Lazy Daisy | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blood Curdling | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lotta Ott | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | His Glory | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Addilyn | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shadilee | 10.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | British Idiom | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Iroquois S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Lebda | 10.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rowdy Yates | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Dennis’ Moment | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zyramid | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Letmeno | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Scabbard | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Flute Maker | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Juggernaut | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Automate | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | January Won | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 11 | Strike Appeal | 5.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Continental Clash | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Celtic Mischief | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Hillbilly Deluxe | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Twixy Cat | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sprawl | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Icecap | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maxfield | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ghostlore | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Excession | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bracketologist | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sounion | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Social Afleet | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.