September 14, 2019 Belmont Park Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Lord Simba | 10.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Getoffmyback | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Professor Snape | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Discreet Angel | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Orpheus (ARG) | 0.80 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brimstone | 30.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Chosen One Elijah | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Causforcelebration | 4.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Paynter’s Prize | 5.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Big Wonder | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | The Happy Giant | 2.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr. Vincent | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sidd Finch | 10.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Millies Party Boy | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blood Red Sky | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Storm Alfeet | 50.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Local Hero | 20.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fuel the Bern | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2A | 2 | Identity Politics | 1.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Eye Luv Lulu | 1.40 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 5A | 5 | Build to Suit | 1.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | T Loves a Fight | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Saratoga Beauty | 3.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Magnetique | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Adorable Maya | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Maru | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bella Rose | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Graphite Dutchess | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Dancing Kiki | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Sweet Nazeema | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | No Regrets | 4.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rhode Island | 1.80 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Risky Sour | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Honorable Hero | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fotis | 20.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Scrutinize | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ninja Dust | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Time Expired | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Fleet Admiral | 50.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Croque Monsieur (GB) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mrs. S | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Secondary Market | 3.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Octava | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gray Haze | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Harlem Heights | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | New Day Dawning | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Thissmytime | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Indochine | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Coalition Building | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Windfall Profit | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Velvet Crush | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Inveterate | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Antoinette | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Make Or Break | 30.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Scape | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Trash Panda | 20.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Revelment | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Wicked Amber | 30.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Look Me Over | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Keota | 2.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Connectivity | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Positive Skew | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tass | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Morelikelythannot | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Augusta Moon | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Star Swept | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Rossellini | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Ideational | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Righteous Ruby | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Solitary Gem | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Excess Capacity | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Lutsky | 0.80 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Invest | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Amundson | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bassman Dave | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | New York Hero | 15.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | True Gold | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Foolish Ghost | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Pebbles S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Seek and Destroy | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blowout (GB) | 1.80 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Feel Glorious (GB) | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eyeinthesky | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | East (GB) | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Passing Out | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alasaayil | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Bellera | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Andretta | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Something Joyful | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Shanghai Bonnie | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mike’s Girl | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bid You Adieu | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Appreciate | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tradeable | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Itsakeyper | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overtime Olivia | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Roses From Ben | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Eight Oaks | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Sister Emily | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Prairie Fire | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Party in the Sand | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.