September 13, 2019 Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Lady Cleopatra | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Lucy’s Town | 2.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Zena Rules | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Colorincolonel | 10.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Loran Holiday (ARG) | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Nautia | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Kimberley Dream | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Singsong Bird | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Street Dazzle | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Visit | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Limage | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | The Mallard Queen | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Classy Justice | 30.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Finer Things | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Small Moment | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Osprey Court | 30.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Actress On Board | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7A | 6 | Lontani | 2.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Moment | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Coworker | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Wings Up | 20.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Croatian | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | King Ford | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | New Year’s Luck | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Just Like Richie | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Whenthepennydrops | 10.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Fra Mauro | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Pappou | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Cedar Creek | 6.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Dark Arden | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Zorzor | 5.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Mucho Macho Dan | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Allidoisdreamofyou | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Rock n’ Candy | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mono | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Swamp Ruler | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Red Blue and True | 50.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Bajan Cash | 4.50 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Inmyfathersimage | 50.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 13A | 13 | Utmost Intensity | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dominga | 2.50 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Osaka Girl | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Jumping Jill Flash | 6.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Sa Font Salada | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Mizzen Beau | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Palace Miss | 12.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Art of Law | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Lady Hampton | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Graysonsmacho Gal | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Sursum Corda | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Princess Marykate | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Regal Passage | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | She Can’t Sing | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Tetrahydro | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2A | 2 | Recruiting Ready | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | C Z Rocket | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Done Deal | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Kowboy Karma | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mr. Crow | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Colonelsdarktemper | 10.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mr Darcy | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 7A | 7 | He Hate Me | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Flatoya | 5.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Crusin Alone | 5.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lili’s Song | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Heir of Light | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Beautiful Trauma | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Princesinha Julia | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Motu | 12.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tempers Rising | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Burning Secret | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lady McKenzie | 20.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Stand Tall | 12.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Obstinate | 15.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Cara Caterina | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Natoma | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Catherineofaragon | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Vomba | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sworn Silence | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shilah Baby | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | J D’s Girl | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Summer Delivery | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Love My Honey | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Inthemidstofbiz | 5.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rumandice | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Spice It Up | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Diamond Crazy | 5.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Alkhaatam | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Blueridge Traveler | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Captivating Moon | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Hardly a Secret | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mississippi | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Han Sense | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | December Seven | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Own Agenda | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Hawaakom | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Fort Peck | 15.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | On Patrol | 30.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Catdaddy | 50.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Dazzling Truths | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Exemplar | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Young Phillip | 5.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Dinar | 3.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Queen’s Mason | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Go for Jim | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fantastry (BRZ) | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dizzy Sight | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Triggerman | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Edgemont Road | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Tank Commander | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Honoring Major | 50.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | All About Will | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Luna’s in Charge | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.