September 2, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Doswell | 1.40 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Motataabeq | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 6 | Malthael | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Southern Bridge | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Noble Spirit | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Border Town | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Conviction Trade | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Deft | 1.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Dillon Rocks | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Cardiff Cay | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mo Diddley | 1.80 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Candid Desire | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Giant Boo Boo | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Manifest Destiny | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Samadi Sky | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Joe’s Smokin Gun | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Big Thicket | 10.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Battle Station | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | Thousand Percent | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Baffin Bay | 4.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Seanow | 4.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Days of Glory | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Calamity Kat | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tricky Magician | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Impazible Odds | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Dakota’s Dude | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Spinning Kitten | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Gins and Tins | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Fayette Warrior | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 4 | Heavy Roller | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | Ekhtibaar | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Halloween Horror | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | American Lincoln | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Street Trust | 15.00 | 18.3 | 35-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Curlin Road | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2A | 2 | Candy Promises | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Chief Know It All | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Big Muddy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Labeq | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Mo Gee | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Super Silver | 3.50 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Dreamzapper | 2.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Snap Hook | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Rucksack | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Zap Daddy | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Willing to Speed | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Southern Brigade | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Clyde’s Runner | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Whiskey Is My Wine | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Letterman | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Shiny Copper Penny | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Gouverneur Morris | 1.60 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Maximiliano | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Malibu Edge | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clifton Park | 10.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Tadeo | 12.00 | 11 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Secret Rules | 8.00 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Nashvegas | 20.00 | 15.6 | 29-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stop Asking | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Runaway Star | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | In Charge | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 6 | Saratoga Colonel | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Jerome Avenue | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Danny California | 6.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Pipes | 4.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 13 | 7 | Hussar | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Quality Choice | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 5 | Spectator Sport | 20.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 14A | 8 | Chillinwithfriends | 12.00 | 24 | 45-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Rhode Island | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Ninja Dust | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Time Expired | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Fleet Admiral | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | False Info | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Starlite Mission | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Newport Breeze | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Miss Lily B | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Shelley Ann | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Hay Field | 2.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Puffery | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Forever Changed | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bangle Gal | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | New Girl in Town | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Timely Tradition | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Bernard Baruch H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Qurbaan | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Olympico (FR) | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | March to the Arch | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Emaraaty (GB) | 4.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Dream Friend | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Sacred Life (FR) | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Noble Indy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Runhappy Hopeful S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | By Your Side | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shoplifted | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | American Butterfly | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Basin | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Gozilla | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Inside Risk | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Green Light Go | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Borough Boy | 12.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Exchequer | 8.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Skywriting | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Impunity | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mine the Coin | 2.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Centsmybabyleftme | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Talespin | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dealin’ Stelen | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Dr. Devera’s Way | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4A | 4 | Dream’n Demon | 20.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Fu Pegchu | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Our Honor | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.