September 1, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | More Thunder | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Summer Sangria | 2.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Chimney Rock | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bahamian Prince | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Las Ramblas | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Montana Man | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Big Royal Lineage | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alex Love Candy | 12.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brickyard | 15.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Elegant Rose | 1.40 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Magical Time | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Summer Fantasy | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Will Take Over | 5.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Remembering Bobbie | 6.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Disquiet | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Margie Music | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Love That Goose | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Talent Scout | 3.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Three Outlaws | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Raphael | 3.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Northern Haze | 2.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Ari’s Naughty Luca | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Laughing Manners | 6.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Preston Court | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 2 | Science Fiction | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | My Galina | 1.80 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Honey I’m Good | 8.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Factoring | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | I’llhandalthecash | 3.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Stonesintheroad | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Restructure | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Slimey | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Flat Calm | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | O’Bushido | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Feeling It | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bongga | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Aleph | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Vaya Con Dios | 3.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bayern’s Mirage | 8.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Florida Flash | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Bobbyfromthepalm | 4.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tipazo | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Forever Wicked | 30.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Five Card Draw | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Brush Country | 8.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bears Mafia | 4.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carrier Landing | 2.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Woodbury | 5.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 4A | 4 | The Sicarii | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 6A | 6 | Macca Tree | 8.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Always Forgiven | 1.60 | 18 | 34-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Sparkling Sky | 1.80 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boxer Rebellion | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bridal Path | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Laughable | 8.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Our Little Jewel | 12.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mirabell Mei | 10.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Andiama | 15.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Malibu June | 15.00 | 13.3 | 25-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Paterson | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Osaka Girl | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Leeway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Blessingsofliberty | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Wicked Amber | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Midship Lady | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Day Dayenu | 3.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cleopatra’s Charm | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Buxom Beast | 5.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Slam Dunk | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | One Time Around | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Alandra | 8.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Always a Queen | 4.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Impeccable Style | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Miss My Macho | 20.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Orsay | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Thissmytime | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Lucky Dime | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Tetrahydro | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Jennemily | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Enjay’s Brass | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Connectivity | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Music of Life | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Dance Till Dawn | 3.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Here Comes Jackie | 3.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Linda’s Ballet | 12.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Distorted News | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bustin Scones | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Chillinwithfriends | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Carrizo | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Subsidiary | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Olive Kat | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Smoken Deb | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Cathy Naz | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Overheated | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Untaken | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Tina | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Excess Capacity | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Spinaway S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Frank’s Rockette | 1.60 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Perfect Alibi | 3.50 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shippy | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Figure of Speech | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Miss Peppina | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Risky Mischief | 6.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Mundaye Call | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Opt | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Nutzforboltz | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Graded On a Curve | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Saltking | 6.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dashing Dan | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bad Guy | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Risky Sour | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Magical Tale | 30.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fotis | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Scrutinize | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Dreamzapper | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Honorable Hero | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Pipes | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | I Love Jaxson | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Mister Bobby | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Bebe Banker | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.