August 31, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Structor | 2.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Myamanoi | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pow Wow Prince | 10.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Hard Sting | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Eternal Summer | 12.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | King’s Honor (IRE) | 5.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sul Moon | 2.50 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Scanno | 12.00 | 11.6 | 22-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 5 | Honey Won’t | 1.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Quest for Fire | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Running Violence | 15.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | No Regrets | 3.50 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Brockmoninoff | 6.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Valmont | 10.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Yes and Yes | 6.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quintarelli | 20.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bears Mafia | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Stakes) – Prioress S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Break Even | 0.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Risky Mandate | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Royal Charlotte | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Kept True | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Break Curfew | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | South of France | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Pagliacci | 3.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Smooth B | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Mustaaqeem (AUS) | 6.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Fig Jelly | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Axtell | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fully Vested | 3.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fuel the Bern | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Runaway Lute | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Stolen Pistol | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Famished | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sonneman | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Made Sense | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Hometown Pride | 12.00 | 7.7 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Mud Pie | 10.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Stick Figure | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Noble Empire | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Height | 6.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | This Ill Defend | 6.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Risk Profile | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Stakes) – Saranac S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Global Access | 4.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Power Player | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Good Governance (GB) | 2.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rinaldi | 5.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Seismic Wave | 2.50 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tracksmith | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Soviet | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Kowalski | 5.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Extreme Force | 8.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Three Technique | 2.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Always Misbehaving | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Tapage | 8.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Necker Island | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Mischief Afoot | 15.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Wayne O | 10.00 | 9.7 | 18-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Breithorn | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Policy Option | 3.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gear Jockey | 15.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | No Word | 4.50 | 12.8 | 24-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Lord Byron | 8.00 | 13.5 | 26-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Get Set | 5.00 | 13.6 | 26-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Mr Jaggers | 2.00 | 14.5 | 27-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Shamrocket | 12.00 | 15.5 | 29-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tapaloof | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | City Guy | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Proximity Bias | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | My Roxy Girl | 8.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Arrifana | 3.50 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hallawallah | 4.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Take Charge Aubrey | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Brucia La Terra | 12.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cadeau de Paix | 20.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Dating Game | 20.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Our Circle of Love | 10.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Goodbye Brockley | 30.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Untaken | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Stakes) – Glens Falls S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Santa Monica (GB) | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Fools Gold | 2.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Get Explicit | 5.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Empressof the Nile | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mrs. Sippy | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Violet Blue | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Lady Montdore | 12.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Indy Union | 0.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Night of England (GB) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 11 (Stakes) – Woodward S. Presented By Nyra Bets
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Preservationist | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Tom’s d’Etat | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Yoshida (JPN) | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mr. Buff | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wooderson | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bal Harbour | 15.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mongolian Groom | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Forewarned | 30.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Vino Rosso | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | New Frontier | 12.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Airtouch | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Free Enterprise | 1.40 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Somes Sound | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Going for Gold | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Jake Rocks | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Tolerant | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Up and Onward | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fantastry (BRZ) | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.