August 29, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | More Glitter | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Aubrey Tate | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Welsh Gold | 10.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Irish Danzing | 4.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tequila Fog | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Surprise Arrival | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bingolina | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Keypit | 15.00 | 11.2 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Ama Is a Rock | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Barker Lane | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | E Z for You to Say | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Playtone | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Sister Beauty | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Minsky Moment | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Cross Border | 1.60 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Gambler’s Fallacy | 2.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | We Should Talk | 6.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Evaluator | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Ides of Arch | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Riendo | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Vincento | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Peter’s Project | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Golden Vale | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Camorra | 0.80 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blissful Breeze | 12.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tayler’s the Boss | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Tequila Sunday | 3.50 | 7.7 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Parlapiano | 20.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Offlee Irish | 15.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Surge Pricing | 4.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Seven Gems | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Game Boy Benny | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Tenure | 2.50 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Wild One Forever | 4.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | He Iz Gone | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Lundqvist | 8.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sneakiness | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Business Cycle | 1.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mandatory Payout | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | One More Tom | 8.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Bustin Mach Four | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Call the Cat | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bronxville | 5.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Coach Villa | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Inclunation | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Straphanger | 30.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Major Flirt | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lead Guitar | 1.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Corey Scores | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Tossup | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Plink Freud | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fight On Lucy | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pendolino | 12.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kitty Therapy | 15.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Finlee | 30.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Stunning Beauty | 15.00 | 10.5 | 20-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Trumpit | 12.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Queenofeverything | 1.20 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Myawaya | 3.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Saratoga Beauty | 4.50 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Courageous Girl | 8.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Critical Value | 2.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Canarsie Angel | 6.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Smokin Hot Kiss | 20.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Kefaliani | 12.00 | 14.4 | 27-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Mebs Web | 15.00 | 14.8 | 28-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Top Hat Invasion | 12.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Bellamy Bigs | 30.00 | 15.1 | 29-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Imincomunicado | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Bok Choy | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Rewarded | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Bella Invasion | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Majestic Affair | 10.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | California Night | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Missle Bomb | 12.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mr. Dougie Fresh | 3.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Ruler of the Nile | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ray’swarrior | 1.60 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | American Power | 5.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Monteleone | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | H Man | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – P. G. Johnson S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 7 | Sweet Melania | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Apurate | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Lively Kitten | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Ginseng | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Lucky Jingle | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | English Breeze | 5.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Crystalle | 3.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sunset Promise | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Fusi | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Eighty Seven North | 3.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Gunboat Diplomacy | 12.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Ideational | 2.50 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Molly’s Nighthawk | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Freudycatfever | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Don’t Tell Flora | 12.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Miss Ross | 15.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Low Is Laine | 15.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Rare Gift | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Tax Me Naught | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Frosty Linz | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bull Feathers | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Two Graces | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15 | 15 | Disquiet | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 16 | 16 | Summer Fantasy | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.