August 28, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Hepcat | 4.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Teodoro (IRE) | 1.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Soluble (GER) | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Go Get the Basil | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Set to Music | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Roller Rolls On | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Zanzi Win (FR) | 8.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Le Weekend | 3.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Jump for Joy | 1.40 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mo Flash | 2.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Madame Barbarian | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Zecha | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Amanda Lane | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Fetching | 5.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Classic Lady | 2.50 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Out of Trouble | 8.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Bareeqa | 8.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dynamite Kitten | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | War Canoe | 2.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Purely Lucky | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beyond Discreet | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Cartwheel | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Quasar | 6.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Doll Collection | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Indian Pride | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bye Bye Nicky | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rapido Gatta | 3.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Acting Chipper | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Pretty Zippy | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Navasha | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 9 | Decorated Ace | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | O’Malley | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Retro Street | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Bronco Sally | 4.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Floss Dancer | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Alvernia | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tricky Tune | 12.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trixie’s Time | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Bellamy Knows | 6.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Chillinwithfriends | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Bustin Scones | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Tula | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Lorenzen | 5.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Papa King | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Macho Boy | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Blame the Cake | 2.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Chowda | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Candygramformongo | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Cryptographer | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sir Ludlow | 30.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Moonachie | 4.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Unrelenting Force | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Forever Wicked | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Nic and Zoe | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Hai Bobbi | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Tulanian | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Selflessly | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Jazzique (IRE) | 5.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Coin the Phrase | 15.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Morality Clause | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Swirling Candy | 10.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Trash Panda | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Logic N Reason | 4.50 | 11.3 | 21-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Laughable | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Myfirstexwife | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Mom’s Pass | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Giggle Factory | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 15A | 15 | Boston Beauties (IRE) | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | El Asesino | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smile Bryan | 3.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Four Freedoms | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dark Money | 1.60 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Crea’s Bklyn Law | 4.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Go Big Or Go Home | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Hardcore Folklore | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – With Anticipation S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tuggle | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Field Pass | 4.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Andesite | 8.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Fly Fly Away | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Fighting Seabee | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Country | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Eagerly | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Jack the Ripper (FR) | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 4 | Mike’s Girl | 2.50 | 2.4 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Zip It Jess | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Winifred J | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mz Seb Pat | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 9 | Katook | 12.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Abby Normal | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Vitanza | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Minit Maus | 15.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Amazing Zero | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Magical Romance | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Rhinegold | 20.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Here Comes Meg | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Beans N Rice | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Vevey | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.