August 23, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Lapis Storm | 1.60 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Hero of Gold | 3.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ms Meer | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Thirsty Cowgirl | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Mining for Pearls | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ditten Waddy | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Elegant Prowess | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Goneghost | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Wile E Peyote | 3.50 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Balandeen | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Nuclear Option | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Examiner | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Student Body Left | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Mojo Man | 5.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Mister Maestro | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Trappe Valley | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Gorgeous George | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Richiesgotswagger | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Driven by History | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Spectacular Road | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Sidavi | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Go Oshie Go | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Back Page Star | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Straight Up Smarty | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hide and Street | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Bonita Springs | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Antalya | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Launch Away | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Wildwood Scat | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Goddess of Kip | 12.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Northern Alliance | 3.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | On My Toes | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sperling | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Voluptuous | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Tam | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Tinderella | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Chosen Facts | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Baylor | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Winning Quality | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Ozette | 5.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Me too Mo | 2.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mixin It Up | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Brilliant Zena | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Citibike | 15.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Regal Storm | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Rocket Queen | 2.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Almafuerte | 3.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lively Spell | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mistletoe Miss | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Running Vicky | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Good Wishes | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Honey Hearts | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Miss Galilee | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Have the Facts | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Impressed | 2.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Suspect | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Speed Effect | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Kansas City Zip | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Deal Neal In | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Rich’s Rags | 20.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Takafumi (BRZ) | 4.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Star of Kodiak | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Populist | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.