August 22, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – New York Turf Writers Cup H.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Winston C (IRE) | 0.80 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Gibralfaro (IRE) | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Modem (GB) | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Peppay Le Pugh (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Hinterland (FR) | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Belisarius (IRE) | 30.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | All the Way Jose | 12.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | No Wunder (GB) | 15.00 | 9.8 | 19-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Portrade (IRE) | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Internet of Things | 1.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Lucky Bet | 5.00 | 4 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Purchasing Power | 5.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Curlin’s Knight | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Eddy Dirt | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Run for Boston | 12.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Simma Cum Laude | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 3 | Cap de Creus | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Quiet Dignity | 1.80 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Silver Shaker | 10.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Beau Belle | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 5A | 4 | Fancy That | 8.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Cottonwood Falls | 12.00 | 12 | 23-1 | |
| 1A | 1 | Nonsensical | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | English Soul | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Sargeant Drive | 2.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Grit and Glory | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Derby Memories | 1.20 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Claytnthelionheart | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Soul Fight | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bumperdoo | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 6 | Project Whiskey | 1.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Raggedy Annie | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Wicked Title | 12.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | La Negrita | 6.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Leaf | 12.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Central Capital | 10.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Let It Slide | 10.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Blessingsofliberty | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Positive Power | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Las Ramblas | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Crossing the Moon | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Cowtown | 4.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Imperare | 6.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 3A | 3 | Enforceable | 1.80 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Portos | 6.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Mo and Go | 15.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Zuzudini | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2A | 2 | Lucky Curlin | 1.80 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Ghost of the Mambo | 10.00 | 18 | 34-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Bracketologist | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7 | Tatterazzi | 2.50 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Blame It On Mom | 3.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Deep Space | 3.50 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | The Great Johanna | 4.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | J J Jen | 10.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 14 | 10 | Lady Macho | 4.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tax Me Naught | 15.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Irish Banker | 8.00 | 10 | 19-1 | |
| 13 | 9 | Nasty Affair | 2.50 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 12 | 8 | Finlee | 30.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Go Zappem | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Renninas Rose | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Freddymo Factor | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Magical Romance | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Shamrock Kid | 8.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blugrascat’s Smile | 2.50 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Fiery Opal | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Calculated Risker | 4.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Storm Prophet | 1.80 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Playthatfunnymusic | 12.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Riskaverse S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | Catch a Bid | 1.40 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | All Quality | 12.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | Dalika (GER) | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 5 | Xanthique | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 4 | New and Improved | 6.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 6 | Hotsy Totsy (IRE) | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Varenka | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Peaceful | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Ionic | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Queen of Beas | 0.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 3 | Tony Small | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 14 | 7 | Dark Storm | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 13 | 6 | Final Say | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Deft | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Qaabil | 6.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Foti | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 11 | 5 | Knockout Punch | 15.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Azzedine (FR) | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Perceived | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Sandy Lane Kitten | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Timepiece | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Crypto Gold | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Noble Spirit | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Third Army | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.