August 22, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Mind Trappe | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Liberal Lunacy | 1.80 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sacramento Q | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Into My Dreams | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Willow Ridge | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Z U Soon | 30.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 7 | 7 | B Salty | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Of Note | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Expressly | 2.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Bahama Kitten | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kalispell | 20.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Spender | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Goddess of Kip | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | First Hoosier | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Tiz Susan Ann | 2.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Strong Mandy | 3.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Madam Novetzke | 5.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Phoenix Attack | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hook Her Up | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Columbia Clipper | 8.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Joyful Night | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Hammered | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Hidenseek Sally | 8.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Looktheotherway | 1.80 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Belle Brezing | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Meeka | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Gemini Journey | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Hetty G. | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Aviating | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Another Mystery | 2.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baroque | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Ioya Again | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Heisfancy | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Luck of the Draw | 10.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | You Split Tens | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Andreas | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Zanforce | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Mind for Mischief | 12.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | New Rules | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Bonita Bay | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Templuna | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Quality too Spare | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Lena Horne | 4.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Rare Action Attack | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | I Love to Race | 20.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Lucky I Guess | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lady C | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Blanca Rose | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Half of Manhattan | 5.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Purely Boy | 6.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Storminside | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Cat’s Runaway | 8.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Frost Or Frippery | 2.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Pistol Box | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 4 | Opportunistic | 4.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Risky Town | 4.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Fort Dixie | 12.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Wills Defence | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Meanbone | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 7 | Welovecandy | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Boom Box | 5.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | M C Squared | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Bajan Rhythm | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Flyingbyu | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | He’s Dann Good | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | A J’s Posse | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Savie | 20.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Boston Charley | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Franklin County | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.