August 21, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Stakes) – Michael G. Walsh Novice S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Cite | 4.50 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Storm Team | 15.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Chief Justice (GB) | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Sportswear (GB) | 3.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Arch My Boy (GB) | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Belisarius (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Veneer of Charm (IRE) | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | South of the Shore | 1.60 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Smooth With a Kick | 1.40 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bellera | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Mo Moxie | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Team Win | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Shackleford’s Joy | 3.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Bychance | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Indian Cross | 5.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Rejected Again | 2.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Brady’s Palace | 4.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Alex Love Candy | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Florida Flash | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 4 (Stakes) – John’s Call S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Red Knight | 1.60 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Highland Sky | 2.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Redicean (GB) | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Pillar Mountain (IRE) | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Nakamura | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Proquestor | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Naked Avenger | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Be Magic | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Jewel of Arabia | 1.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Sophie Rules | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Adorable Maya | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Beyond Brown | 10.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Barbara’s Bank | 15.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Never Heard of Her | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Manage My Credit | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mebs Web | 30.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sweet Nazeema | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Quantitativbreezin | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Courageous Girl | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Justintimeforwine | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Smite | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Flute Maker | 4.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Legend of Bam | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Breed’s Hill | 6.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Ninth of April | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Like You | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lovedisc | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Montana Man | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Saint Marco | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 4 | So Conflated | 3.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Autostrade | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Liam Lets Go | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Flat Out Jayvien | 30.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Foolish Ghost | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Air On Fire | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Keeping the Peace | 3.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 5 | Morissette | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Clearwater | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Noblame | 10.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Annie Rocks | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Hoponthebusgus | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 2 | Ardara Belle (FR) | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | China Rider | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 3 | Amanda Lane | 15.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Alvernia | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Factoring | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Golconda (FR) | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Merlins Muse | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 6 | Amundson | 4.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Our Last Buck | 8.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Six Percent | 5.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 6A | 4 | Runningwscissors | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Leaky Cup | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Thorny Tale | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Samay | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Kerry Boy | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Bronx Bomber | 10.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 13 | 10 | Bustin Hoffman | 12.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | True Gold | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5A | 5 | Bears Mafia | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | New York Hero | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 5 | Saloon Girl | 0.80 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 16 | 6 | Queen Kahen | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 1 | Shanghai Bonnie | 8.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 2 | Zandora | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 3 | My Sister’s Keeper | 10.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 4 | Shak’s Hidden Gem | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Itsakeyper | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Sister Emily | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Sarahrini | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Avocado Toast | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Matzo Bella | 2.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Tradeable | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Bid You Adieu | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Something Joyful | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Appreciate | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Shrink | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.