August 18, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Superstar Leo | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Our Thomas | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nyoman | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Four Left Feet | 2.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Im the Best I Know | 2.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Strike Quiet | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Maria’s Moment | 2.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Arrowsphere | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Constancia | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Jules | 20.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Pinotage | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Cowgirl Callie | 4.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Karate Hottie | 5.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Club Soda | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Full of Run | 1.60 | 2.9 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Knockyourblockoff | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Blue Steel | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Warriors Gem | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 6 | Maximus Image | 12.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tres Generaciones | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Macho Alpha | 10.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Little Baltar | 4.50 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Papa Caliente | 5.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Smokey Row Mac | 3.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Romeo O Romeo | 3.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Gentleman Richie | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Commander’s Castle | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 7 | Show’em Pop | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Landing Gear | 5.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Ready to Fight | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Midnight Las Vegas | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Shogood | 4.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Shanghai Point | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Pablo Del Monte | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Singanothersong | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Royal Commish | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Iker | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Mongol Bull | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Helen Hayes | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dame of Thrones | 2.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Good Mongolia | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Americanperfection | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Chainmail | 4.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Fringe | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Uknowiaintlying | 30.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Circuit Reboot | 20.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Angaston | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | What’s Up Dude | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Memory Bank | 8.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cowboy Culture | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Dubby Dubbie | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 1 | Morning Stride | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Longden (GB) | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 2 | Red Jersey | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Lady Express | 2.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Kenai Cool | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Frosty Friend | 3.50 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Templesis | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ice for That Burn | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Tomasita | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 4 | Fortressa | 6.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Miss Cartelle | 30.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Romantic Attack | 8.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Wazz Dat | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Annie Time Girl | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.