August 16, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Barleewon | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Turbo Drive | 4.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Driftwood | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Kobe | 12.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Victory Built | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Maxwell Esquire | 6.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Noble Emotion | 8.00 | 8.8 | 17-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Inside Info | 6.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 6A | 6 | Mo Ready | 5.00 | 14 | 26-1 | |
| 11A | 10 | Managing Risk | 5.00 | 17 | 32-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Cold Hard Cash | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Splicethemainbrace | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Walkoff | 2.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Dunph | 3.50 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Olympic Village | 4.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Family Biz | 8.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Shock Therapy | 6.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Johny’s Bobby | 4.50 | 8.7 | 16-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Value Engineering | 1.80 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Bail Out | 3.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Shennan (IRE) | 3.50 | 7 | 13-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tiberius Mercurius | 6.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lookin At Roses | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Overbold | 8.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Corcoran | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Hellorhighwater | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Kathy’s Cause | 6.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 10 | Lookbothways | 3.50 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Annette’s Humor | 6.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Tarallucci | 4.50 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Prairie Fire | 8.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Beans N Rice | 12.00 | 9.8 | 18-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Wailin Josie | 8.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Plimsoll Anny | 30.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Flattering Eyes | 12.00 | 12.3 | 23-1 | |
| 12 | 11 | Sarah’s Rainbow | 50.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Let’s Maga | 15.00 | 14.3 | 27-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Appletini | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | If I Knew | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | Do Share | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Fuel the Bern | 5.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Mucho | 3.50 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Cove Blue | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Life in Shambles | 2.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Blue Belt | 15.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Tiz He the One | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Zabava | 4.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Psalmody | 1.40 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Grand Banks | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 10 | 9 | Theodosia | 12.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Clockstrikestwelve | 3.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Codrington | 8.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Discreet Image | 10.00 | 9 | 17-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Promise Me Roses | 20.00 | 10.4 | 20-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Princess Mikayah | 50.00 | 11.7 | 22-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Carlisle Belle | 2.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Aquaphobia | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Up the Ante | 2.50 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Maraud | 4.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Multiplier | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Zapperini | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Harlan’s Harmony | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Lunaire | 8.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Majestic Affair | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Ratajkowski | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Paved With Gold | 4.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Because of Susan | 15.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Singular Sensation | 8.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Beyond Discreet | 10.00 | 9.5 | 18-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Party in the Sand | 20.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Peaches and Spice | 30.00 | 11.4 | 21-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Behind the Couch | 1.80 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (Stakes) – Skidmore S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Another Miracle | 1.40 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Montauk Daddy | 2.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Proven Strategies | 8.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Frosted Rose | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Memorable | 10.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Venerate | 12.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Now Is | 10.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | River Hawk | 20.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 7 | Prince Halo | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Paynter’s Prize | 3.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Causforcelebration | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Awesome Adversary | 4.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Mr. Vincent | 6.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 12 | 10 | Will’s Bay | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Talespin | 10.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Big Wonder | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | I’m Elmer J Fudd | 12.00 | 10.3 | 19-1 | |
| 11 | 9 | Burkey’s Bro | 20.00 | 10.7 | 20-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Seven Plus Seven | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Blue Parrot | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Chuckles | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Ridolfo | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.