August 16, 2019 Del Mar Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Conquest Smartee | 3.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Seahawk Wave | 2.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Big Impression | 6.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | War Union | 6.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Duke of Fallbrook | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Surfside Sunset | 3.50 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Seven Oxen | 10.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Irish Ballad | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Big Barrel | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 8 | Short of Ez | 6.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Tristram Speaker | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Tiger Dad | 2.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Rinse and Repeat | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | J T’s A. T. M. | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Tribal War Chant | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Sir Eddie | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 1 | Zipper Mischief | 3.50 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Executive Cat | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Gutsy Ruler | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Ten Cents | 4.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Mainframe Judy | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cleveland Cat | 3.50 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Crooked Finger Ray | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Brickyard Ride | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Audace | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Tap Back | 12.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Capital Reef | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Descartes | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Very Irish | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Donut Girl | 6.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Into the South | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Silky Slew | 4.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Stylishly | 3.50 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Time for Ebby | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Andyoushallreceive | 5.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Showit | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tiger Silk (AUS) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Party Hostess | 3.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Bragging Rights | 4.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Rizzi’s Honors | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Red Livy (IRE) | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Brookes All Mine | 4.50 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Copper Cowgirl | 15.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ruby’s Gone Again | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | She’sluckythatway | 20.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Just Be Held | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mama’s Kid | 20.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Spectacular Storm | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Blue Moonrise | 2.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Amatara | 4.00 | 3.4 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Distorted Win | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Miss Ava’s Union | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Star Kissed | 20.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Paige Runner | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Cover Version | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Shear Class | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kohala Coast | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Girl With a Curl | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Ctt And Toc S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Pantsonfire (IRE) | 2.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Lostintranzlation | 4.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Siberian Iris (IRE) | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mirth | 2.50 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Over Thinking | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Curlin’s Journey | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Anna Pavlova (SAF) | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Dawood | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Refractometer | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Rocket Ship | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alfonso C | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Fort Dodge | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | The Easy Way | 5.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Derby Storm | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Tiz a Slayer | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sharpshootingeorge | 10.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Midnight in Maui | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Mad At Money | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Fait Accompli | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Lorelei’s Warrior | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 14 | 14 | Cross Town | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.