August 16, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | The First Hero | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Marvelous Sky | 5.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Penalty Shot | 2.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Saturdays Hangover | 4.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | French Command | 15.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Trumpified | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | I’ve Got Issues | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Lady Furbein | 2.50 | 3.4 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Countess St Michel | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | U Turn the Page | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | War Beauty | 1.80 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Easton Empress | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Baylor | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Midnight Sway | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Appealing Audrey | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Bye Bye Bully’s | 5.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Makealitlemischief | 2.50 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Carissa Crismas | 3.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Alizee | 3.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Russian Mafia | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Touch of Disney | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Revolt | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 6 | Croce d’Oro | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Consultation | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Sunny’s Rainbow | 12.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Garey Park | 3.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Papa Caliente | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 5 | Mr Haney | 6.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Bookie’s Blues | 2.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Enjoy the Journey | 3.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | The Kahn | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Old Fort | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Musical Interest | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Off to the Beach | 6.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | First Masamune | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Sertoman | 20.00 | 7.1 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 6 | The Remainder | 1.40 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 9 | 8 | Mighty Might | 6.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Majestic Hero | 3.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 3 | 3 | Tommytoshort | 4.50 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Red Prince | 20.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Party On Dude | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 7 | Purr’s Along | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Tio Chuy | 8.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bartbaalu | 20.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Daddy’s Boo | 3.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 8 | 5 | Flammetta | 4.50 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 13 | 8 | Temple Fur | 3.50 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Lexington Grace (IRE) | 12.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Something Kinky | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Some Say So | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 7 | Embarrassing | 5.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 4 | Drinks On Me | 8.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Fizzy Friday (GB) | 3.50 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Strollin the Bayou | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 3 | Warrior’s Way | 20.00 | 8.2 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ima Little Kitten | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Applique | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Ragatagtag | 4.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Trophy Bridle | 1.80 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ginger Snap Dance | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Hat Tip | 15.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Prado’s Encore | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Keeneasabean | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | My Jilly | 20.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sharperthanme | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kuringai | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Go Yeowomen | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Canton Comet | 12.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Logi | 20.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Shes Just Capital | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Track Magic | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.