August 15, 2019 Arlington Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Senor Blanco | 3.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Tiz Samurai | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ahoymycaptain | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 3 | Orcus | 1.80 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Travel West | 15.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | McHenry | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Making a Marc | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 7 | 7 | Rock Can Tour | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Dumbmark | 3.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Ferlin Husky | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Bootleggin | 2.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Elusive Force | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Weiland | 12.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Sequins Storm | 3.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | El Payaso | 4.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Musket Hunter | 20.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cast a Stone | 12.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Street Edge | 1.20 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Cats Valentine | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Trombone Easton | 20.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Arrival | 4.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 2 | 2 | He’s Cheeky | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Lemon Blitz | 3.50 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Never Even Called | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Dollar Blue | 4.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Jimmy D | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Cut to Order | 3.00 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Cadet Captain | 5.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 4 | Golden Dart | 1.60 | 3.2 | 6-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Not Chopped Liver | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Greenhorn | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Tonbo | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 3 | Suspenders | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Kholstomer | 3.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Copper Fiddle | 1.60 | 3.3 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Extra Medium | 3.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hero of the Hour | 4.50 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Military Hop | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Drayke’s Channel | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Travel Account | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Exprompt (FR) | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Executive Bonus | 2.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Remembermis | 10.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Sailing Solo | 4.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Juan Pablo | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Pont Du Gard | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Cloud to Ground | 6.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Desani’s Chance | 3.50 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 6 | 6 | One Way Home | 2.50 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Little Mighty Man | 3.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Demand Ransom | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Christmas Cookie | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Here Comes Kyle | 5.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Unbridled Ruler | 15.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Swither’s Shortcut | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.