August 14, 2019 Saratoga Horse Racing Picks.
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Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Snap Decision | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Gaye Breeze (IRE) | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Tomgarrow (IRE) | 3.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Whitman’s Poetry | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Renown (GB) | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Go Get the Basil | 10.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Zanzi Win (FR) | 5.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Roller Rolls On | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Beyond Gone | 1.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | More Thunder | 4.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Montana Man | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Dan the Man Can | 4.50 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mr Phil | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Stone Guitar | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King of American | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Lord Simba | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Aristocratic | 2.50 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Reason to Soar | 3.00 | 3.7 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mad Munnys | 3.50 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Orpheus (ARG) | 6.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Regalian | 4.50 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Will Did It | 12.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Gosilently | 2.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Masterkey | 15.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Dublin Pub | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Hokulea | 12.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Bad Guy | 3.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Nutzforboltz | 8.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Honorable Hero | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Risky Sour | 8.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Steelersfanforlife | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Kerry Boy | 6.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Daddy Knows | 1.40 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | Bebe Banker | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | My Bronx Tail | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Katama Moonlight | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | My Happy Place | 3.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Ocean Fire | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Comic | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Stand for the Flag | 4.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Navasha | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Devils Rendezvous | 6.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Astoria Kitten | 2.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Mazal Eighteen | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Sister Beauty | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Kiss and Run | 4.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | English Breeze | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sainte Mere Eglise | 10.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Big Bounty | 10.00 | 7 | 13-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Dustinthewind | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | More Than Silver | 12.00 | 8.6 | 16-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Let It Slide | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Stakes) – Bolton Landing S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 4 | Kimari | 0.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 3 | Abscond | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 7 | 6 | Classy Sadie | 12.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 6 | 5 | Champagne Humor | 8.00 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Vast | 5.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 3 | 2 | Persian Queen | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dontyouremember | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Allured | 0.60 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Stage Left | 4.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Passcode | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Macca Tree | 15.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Spectator Sport | 10.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Raphael | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Violent Delights | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Dublin Green | 30.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | Harv Won’t Tap | 2.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 11 | 8 | Golden Spear | 4.00 | 3 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 7 | Sycamore Lane | 5.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Basha | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 | |
| 9 | 6 | Yes I See | 6.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Coltrane | 8.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Total Tap | 3.50 | 5.1 | 10-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Tactical Pursuit (IRE) | 15.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Armament | 0.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 6 | 6 | Turco Bravo (CHI) | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 8 | 8 | Simma Cum Laude | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 12 | 12 | Mills | 5.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 13 | 13 | Playthatfunnymusic | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance)
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Morissette | 3.50 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 12 | 9 | Subsidiary | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | A Dixie Twister | 4.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 | |
| 9 | 7 | Questeq | 8.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 5 | Proportionality | 10.00 | 5 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 6 | Dancingwthdaffodls | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 10 | 8 | Linda’s Ballet | 6.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 3 | Overheated | 12.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 4 | Brass Ring | 15.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Overtime Olivia | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 4 | 4 | Carrizo | 1.60 | SCRATCH | ||
| 11 | 11 | Ardara Belle (FR) | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.